InvenSense (INVN) is set to release fiscal first-quarter 2016 results later this week, and it's time for investors to start thinking about what to expect from the industry-leading motion sensor specialist.
Analysts anticipate InvenSense's revenue to climb 53.6% year over year to $102.4 million, while adjusted earnings per share are expected to jump 50% to $0.12. Both figures are in line with InvenSense's guidance, which calls for quarterly revenue of $100 million to $105 million, and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $0.11 to $0.13.
But InvenSense's business is about more than just revenue and earnings, so investors would be wise to dig deeper to understand what's driving those results. In no particular order, here are three things for which I'll be watching in the report and subsequent conference call.
1. Updates on Cupertino
First, expect to hear updates on InvenSense's relationship with its single-largest customer, Apple (AAPL 1.27%), which last quarter accounted for 32% of total sales. Samsung trailed close behind at 29%. But note that's a big shift from the same year-ago period, when the two companies comprised around 45% and 24% of total revenue, respectively.
In addition -- and keeping in mind InvenSense surprisingly wasn't included in the first-generation Apple Watch -- last quarter CEO Behrooz Abdi told investors that "there wasn't anything technology related" in Apple's decision to instead use motion sensors from competitor STMicroelectronics. Rather, Abdi suggested Apple didn't require the superior power efficiency (and likely higher price) of InvenSense's products -- yet. To be sure, Abdi also called it "a growth opportunity going forward," and insisted investors should not "read into it as a harbinger of things to come." I'll be listening closely for any hints, then, on whether InvenSense has made progress in further penetrating the next generation of Apple devices.
2. Color on new verticals/diversification
InvenSense also typically provides a breakdown of revenue by market segment. Here are last quarter's figures compared with the same year-ago period:
| Segment | % of Q4 2015 Revenue | % of Q4 2014 Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Smartphones and tablets | 71% | 81% |
| Optical image stabilization | 18% | 10% |
| Other (including gaming) | 11% | 9% |
In particular, InvenSense enjoyed adoption of its Optical Image Stabilization products by Tier 1 manufacturers in 2015, and Abdi says OIS is "now on the roadmap of nearly every premium smartphone brand." Better yet, in fiscal 2016 InvenSense expects OIS attach rates in mobile to roughly double, further driving its still-small slice of InvenSense's total revenue pie. Investors should listen carefully for confirmation these expectations remains in place.
InvenSense management also described "increasing interest" in younger markets, including the use of its audio sensor products to gather contextual awareness data for mobile devices. Similarly, InvenSense is uniquely poised to develop and advance "contextually intelligent" sensors to a plethora of next generation Internet-connected products, allowing it to play a central role as the Internet of Things megatrend gains steam.
3. On guidance
Finally, InvenSense should provide its financial outlook for the fiscal second quarter, as well as a look at its year-over-year fiscal 2016 growth estimates.
Wall Street, for its part, is currently modeling 28% year-over-year growth in fiscal Q2 2016 revenue to $115.5 million, while adjusted earnings are expected to more than triple over the same period to $0.17 per share. For the full fiscal year, analysts see InvenSense's revenue growing 22.6% to $456.1 million, and adjusted earnings per share increasing 45.7% to $0.67.
But arguably more important will be InvenSense's supplementary comments here, including its backlog to support that guidance, the expected mix of its largest customers, and the anticipated acceleration of its newest market opportunities. In the end, whether InvenSense lives up to Wall Street's top- and bottom-line expectations over the near term remains to be seen, but I think investors would be wise to place more focus on the promise this business holds even further down the road.
