What: Shares of Outerwall (OUTR) were down 24% as of 11:30 a.m. Monday after the kiosk operator reduced its full-year 2015 guidance and announced a "leadership transition" at Redbox and the decision to discontinue its SampleIt concept.
So what: Outerwall now expects consolidated revenue between $2.165 billion and $2.19 billion, down from its previous guidance of $2.205 billion to $2.24 billion, and below analysts' consensus expectations for revenue of $2.22 billion. Within that, Redbox revenue is now anticipated to be between $1.75 billion and $1.765 billion, compared to Outerwall's previous expectation for Redbox revenue of $1.79 billion to $1.815 billion.
Meanwhile, core adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization should be between $460 million and $475 million (down from $490 million to $510 million before), which should translate to core diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $7.65 to $8.15 (down from previous guidance for $8.82 to $9.52). Analysts, on average, were modeling full-year 2015 earnings of $9.35 per share.
On the top line, Outerwall explained that while Redbox has improved both unique customer and total rental trends sequentially in the first two months of the fourth quarter, it "continues to remain challenged by the historically low box office during the third quarter, which was the worst theatrical box office in Redbox kiosks in four years.
Redbox also blamed the outsized reduction to bottom-line guidance on "increased promotional spend and additional content purchases to encourage consumers to return to normal rental patterns."
Now what: Perhaps unsurprisingly, Outerwall also announced Redbox President Mark Horak is leaving the company. CEO Erik Prusch will fill Horak's role on an interim basis while the company searches for a replacement.
Finally, Outerwall decided to discontinue its relatively new coupon and sample dispensing SampleIt concept, noting a thorough review revealed the relatively new concept would not likely generate "sufficient returns to justify allocating additional capital [...]." As a result, Outerwall will wind down SampleIt operations by the end of next month, and expects to recognize a one-time non-cash accelerated depreciation charge of roughly $4.5 million, or $0.16 per diluted share.
In the end, it might be tempting to pick up shares of Outerwall after this enormous pullback. But given the significant guidance reduction and continued struggles of its core business, I fear the pullback is merited and could be only the beginning of a longer-term trend. Until the dust settles and Redbox begins to show signs of a sustained return to profitable growth, I'm convinced patient investors would be wise to avoid Outerwall stock.
