Rick's a pro, and I certainly can't argue with his upbeat view on the satellite radio industry in general. I share his belief that terrestrial radio is a pretty sick puppy, given the way it's disappointed listeners. However, it seems pretty clear that Sirius (Nasdaq: SIRI ) will similarly disappoint its stockholding fan base soon enough. And I've got a few more reasons that I didn't include in my opening arguments.
Many people argue that XM Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: XMSR ) is the technological leader in sat-rad; for example, last month I wrote an article about XM's new portable satellite radio/MP3 player. I was dismayed to discover that although Sirius had a product that was marketed as a satellite radio/MP3 player, it didn't actually include live satellite radio content; users have to dock it to their computers and download content. I can only imagine that some Sirius users must have been pretty miffed to realize that they couldn't tune into live transmissions. Bad move, Sirius.
When it comes to consumers' choices in music, I wouldn't disregard the power of Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL ) iPod, either. Steve Jobs' omnipresent music player has many complementary items in its accessory universe that allow commuters to stream music through their car stereos. Commuters can mix their own music, specified to their own personal tastes, without commercials or (dare I say it) shock jocks.
Rick's bullish on Howard, but I just realized that the Howard hype has been going on for so long. Maybe the "Howard halo effect" will continue into the March quarter, but let's face it, the fans who were going to shell out for Howard likely did so a long time ago. Howard may attract a young male audience that's known for adopting new technologies, but the recent piracy flap suggests that some of those users' eagerly adopted technologies include ways to get their Stern fix for free.
Rick states that there's nothing wrong with passion, and I agree with him there, too. (Passion can be full of mixed feelings, and it seems my friend Rick might have some mixed feelings on the subject of Sirius -- in an interview with Forbes, he said "XM is not as insanely overvalued" as Sirius. Who's the bear again, Rick?) Rick and I also agree that misplaced passion is a problem; when it comes to fan investors who can't compose a reasoned e-mail about a stock they own, I'd consider that passion especially misplaced. Given all the hot air surrounding its stock, I think there's a real danger that any missteps or disappointments will cause Sirius to tumble from its current heights.
I do appreciate Rick's point that there's a lot that can happen between now and the idyllic (and hardly guaranteed) future when Sirius lives up to such high expectations. He sees a lot of pretty darn good things between now and then, but I'd argue that a lot of it could also turn out to be pretty darn bad. Rick, I so enjoyed your metaphor about pigs, chickens, ham, and eggs. But I think XM and other competitive forces -- some of which we may not even know about yet -- may very well have Sirius for breakfast.
Think you're done with the Duel? You're not! Go back and read the other three arguments, then vote for a winner.
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Alyce Lomax does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned.
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