A 1-in-100 Investor

Presidents are often measured by what they achieve during their first 100 days in office. Schools have parties for students on the 100th day of the school year. Newly appointed executives are often expected to affect substantial change, if not realize greater shareholder value, within their first 100 days.

Around here at Motley Fool CAPS, we keep an eye on the 100-day mark, too. Some of our best investors -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved top player ratings after garnering a score of 100 in their first 100 days on CAPS. Analysis has shown that the top-rated stocks have had the best performance over the past year, so might we assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there is a correlation there as well?

One of our highest-rated CAPS investors is cobradon, who sports a near-perfect 99.94 player rating. A player since January 2007, cobradon currently has 198 active picks on CAPS out of more than 1,200 stock picks made. Achieving 75% accuracy, cobradon has also attracted 78 "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top player's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Stock

CAPS Rating (out of 5)

Call

Price*

Current Score

Atwood Oceanics

*****

Outperform

$58.94

(3.22)

Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ  )

***

Outperform

$50.60

(15.54)

Elan (NYSE: ELN  )

***

Outperform

$29.95

23.13

Fording Canadian Coal (NYSE: FDG  )

****

Outperform

$89.75

(0.43)

James River Coal (Nasdaq: JRCC  )

***

Outperform

$54.24

1.30

Metalico

*****

Outperform

$17.82

(11.18)

Pan American Silver

*****

Outperform

$35.59

6.13

Petrohawk Energy (NYSE: HK  )

****

Outperform

$41.82

22.32

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT  )

****

Outperform

$215.40

13.61

Urban Outfitters (Nasdaq: URBN  )

**

Outperform

$33.90

(3.28)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. Current score is how many points a player is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.*Price when call was made.

Bumper crop
With corn and sugar cane taking on applications beyond their usual uses as food stock or food additives (for example, being used for ethanol), the worldwide demand to grow bigger, faster, better crops is fueling the need for potash to fertilize them. Sitting atop the 50-million-ton market -- one that's expected to grow 3% to 4% annually -- is Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, with 17% of the world’s potash production and 22% of its capacity in 2007.

While shares have pulled back from their highs last month, investors like Artististic find the long-term outlook very appealing:

In an economy that is in need of a fuel substitute, what better place to put your bucks than in a company that produces fertilizer. Better crops of corn, more ethanol. Also there is a need to produce more food for a growing population.

One lump or two?
Coal stocks took their lumps two weeks ago when the sector cracked and shares plummeted 10% or more. One of the worst was Fording Canadian Coal, which dropped 16% during the rout. Yet the pullback was actually welcomed by analysts, who don't see coal as a dirty word, but rather saw the decline as a necessary step toward achieving the next level of growth. Coal stocks have more than doubled over the past year, and it was time for a breather.

As with potash, worldwide demand for coal remains as strong as ever. The black stuff accounts for 40% of the world's energy needs, and as much as 70% in places like India. Coal stocks have quickly rebounded, with Fording's shares regaining nearly 10% of their losses by the end of last week.

As cheap as the stocks became, top-rated CAPS investors like jester112358 find the price of coal itself to be undervalued, which should lead to contracts being revised in the coming months, and presumably even higher prices for Fording and other coal companies:

Coal is still underpriced relative to oil and natural gas. This will cause fuel switching in major power plants and repricing upward of future coal contracts.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest players in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have made their mark, but we haven't yet heard from you. As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. And since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?

Atwood Oceanics is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey does not have a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings here. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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