Onyx -- Still Waiting

• Report this Comment On November 07, 2008, at 3:24 PM, Vinman2 wrote:

  You are completely underestimating the growth of Nexavar in HCC, especially in Asia.

• Report this Comment On November 08, 2008, at 2:53 AM, FlyingTarpon wrote:

  DELCATH SYSTEMS (DCTH@$1.03) could easily make ONXX Liver Cancer Drug ---> WORTHLESS

  In Short... Look at the DATA:

  DCTH Systems -----> Patients have averaged 40 months of survival

  VS>

  ONXX/ Nevavar ------> Patients have averaged 10.7 months of survival

  DCTH's technology is aggressively ---> SHRINKING LIVER TUMORS

  Under ONXX's - Nevavar --------> Liver Tumors continue to "GROW" at a slow rate.... the tumors don't regress

  A recent study of 19 evaluated DELCATH patients, complete radiographic tumor responses (TUMORS SHRANK to REMISSION) were observed in 2 patients and partial responses were observed in 13 patients resulting in an objective tumor response rate of 79%. Median overall survival, based upon an intention to treat analysis, was 40 months and median hepatic progression free survival for treated patients was 39 months

  In ONXX clinical trials, median overall survival for ONXX's NEXAVAR-sorafenib tablet treated patients was 10.7 months to 7.9 months for those patients taking a placebo. The patients who took ONXX's Nexavar lived only 3 months longer on average than patients who took a placebo (dummy drug), and their liver tumors continued to "GROW" while under treatment. The fact is that those patients that did take NEXAVAR saw their disease and their liver tumors continue to -GROW- under treatment

  ONXX currently has a market cap of $1.7 Billion with $400 million in cash, therefore ONXX has a Corporate Business Value/ Enterprise Value of ---> $1.3 Billion

  DCTH @ $1.03 has a market cap of $25 Million with $13 million in Cash ….. therefore DCTH has a Corporate Business Value/ Enterprise Value of ---> $12 Million

  This means that DCTH would trade at over $50 + a share in value if it had the same value that Wall Street currently gives ONXX today !

  Here’s the crazy part….. ONXX only owns only 50% of their Technology

  ONXX only receives 50% of the profits derived from their Liver Cancer drug Nexavar based on the agreement they have in place with Bayer AG. ( A 50/50 profit split)

  DCTH on the other hand ---> Owns 100% of the Worldwide Rights to their Liver Cancer Therapy….

  Thus, DCTH would receive 100% of any Potential Profits from their "Delcath System" …

  Therefore an argument could be made that DCTH should be valued 2X the value of ONXX based on the fact that DCTH would receive 100% of any potential Liver Cancer Cash Flows on a world wide basis.

  DCTH’s treatment is a “Turn Back the Clock Therapy” that SHRINKS LIVER TUMORS and will prove to be far better therapy that anything ONXX has in Liver Cancer.

  In addition, DCTH has publicly announced that they have put 20% of their evaluated patients in REMISSION ... ONXX cannot offer a single patient example

  There is no way that ONXX should be worth BILLIONS and DCTH trade at an enterprise value of only $12 Million !

  BIG HINT :

  Look at the INSIDER BUYING @ DCTH ...

  DCTH Insiders have bought Millions of Shares of their own stock --> in the open Market...

  Then Look at ONXX.... Their INSIDERS have SOLD Millions of Shares !!!

  FOOD for Thought:

  If I owned a single share of ONXX ...

  I would keep a close eye on DCTH ---> Because one of these days, they are going to turn ONXX's Liver Cancer Program into> SAWDUST !

  You heard it here 1st !!

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