A 1-in-100 Investor

• Email
• Share
• Print

The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new President. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how investors do in their own first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. Since data shows that the best stocks to buy and sell have gotten top ratings, might we also assume a correlation when the best players rate the best stocks?

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is Tastylunch, who sports a near-perfect 99.90 member rating. A member since December 2007, Tastylunch currently has 148 active picks on CAPS, out of more than 600 stock picks made. Achieving 74% accuracy, Tastylunch has also already attracted 32 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections, and how they were rated:

Stock	CAPS Rating  (5 max)	Call	Price*	Current Score
Anadys Pharmaceuticals	*	Underperform	$3.68	(11.49)
Centex (NYSEL CTX)	*	Underperform	$9.69	(8.09)
Coach (NYSE: COH)	****	Underperform	$18.45	3.75
Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG)	**	Underperform	$15.55	0.83
IMAX (Nasdaq: IMAX)	***	Underperform	$4.04	(14.44)
Orexigen Therapeutics (Nasdaq: OREX)	*	Underperform	$5.17	(3.97)
Palm (Nasdaq: PALM)	*	Underperform	$3.22	(83.87)
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers	*	Underperform	$35.88	8.09
Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL)	*	Underperform	$21.51	4.63
Williams-Sonoma	**	Underperform	$7.94	(8.12)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.
*Price when call was made.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about some of these stocks, and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Palm
At the very brink of corporate doom, smartphone maker Palm managed to avert disaster with the release of its new handheld Pre, even capturing a Best in Show award at Las Vegas's Consumer Electronics Show last week. Only a month ago, Palm reported a 45% drop in total revenue from last year, while racking up $80 million in losses. Its Treo and Centro phones had long since failed to capture customers' imagination, but despite the Pre's positive debut, a company that needs to ride on all-or-nothing chances instills little confidence in investors.

For that reason, top-rated CAPS All-Star member angreemunkee figured the smartphone maker was worth shorting, particularly since the company had not yet unveiled the Hail Mary pass then codenamed Nova: "Getting to short this at $6 is a dream come true. 30+% rises from a phone nobody's yet seen is a little dramatic."

Toll Brothers
You'll be forgiven if, after reading CAPS member rookie02's pitch for Toll Brothers, you actually thought he was discussing handbag maker Coach when he mentions the demise of luxury goods: "2009 will mark the end of "luxury" companies being able to pull through what other companies cant. the economic crisis is and will continue to effect everyone in every tax bracket and we will see that being more notably reflected as this thing continues to get worse with congress meddling in everything."

Yet the homebuilder became synonymous with the McMansion style of housing, where starter castles covering virtually an entire lot left very little room for outdoor living space. This housing abomination led to a backlash, with local towns passing ordinances prohibiting construction of these "garage mahals." Of course, in the current housing environment, there's not much being built anymore anyway, McMansion or otherwise.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have already made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made, all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. Since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?

Beginning Jan. 12, 2009, Fool co-founder David Gardner, Jeff Fischer, and their Motley Fool Pro team will accept new subscribers to their real-money portfolio service. Motley Fool Pro is investing $1 million of the Fool’s own money in long and short positions in a range of securities, including common stocks, put and call options, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). They also incorporate proprietary CAPS "community intelligence" data into their research. To learn more about Motley Fool Pro, and to receive a private invitation to join, simply enter your email address in the box below.