Recs

19

5 Stocks That You Can Still Buy Today

Two weeks ago, I singled out five stocks that appeared to be more than just recession-resistant. With fundamentals made to thrive in difficult times, they're positioned to be recession-resplendent.

I figured I'd take a look back at those picks now that the market's seemingly begun to rally. After a week and change of lavishing love even on loser stocks, would these recessionary darlings take a turn for the worse? With a bigger pool of potential stocks to buy in this go-go environment, would investors bail on these recessionary plays to load up on languishing equities more closely tied to the state of the economy?

The answer, on both counts, is a resounding "nope!"

Company

3/2/09

3/17/09

Change

Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX  )

$34.35

$40.79

19%

Green Mountain Coffee (Nasdaq: GMCR  )

$38.07

$43.00

13%

American Public Education (Nasdaq: APEI  )

$36.91

$42.05

14%

TASER International (Nasdaq: TASR  )

$3.61

$4.16

15%

Life Partners Holdings (Nasdaq: LPHI  )

$17.00

$19.17

13%

Heads you win, tails you win again
I'm not trying to brag. The market has been refreshingly strong in that time, with the S&P 500 soaring 11% over the course of the same 11 trading days. Yes, all five of the picks have narrowly beaten the market in that time, but with gains between 13% and 19%, the real surprise lies in the consistency of their performance.

To get you up to speed with the recession-happy thesis behind these five picks, I'll give you Twitter-friendly arguments in 140 characters or less.

  • Netflix has added 600,00 new subscribers during just the first six weeks of 2009, validating its appeal with couch potatoes.
  • Green Mountain is thriving at the expense of Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX  ) , selling 711,000 of its Keurig home brewers over the holidays.
  • American Public runs online degree programs, specializing in military personnel who want to improve on their resumes.
  • TASER is the "don't Tase me, bro" stun gun maker, an attractive crime deterrent when good things go sour.
  • Life Partners brokers life settlements, allowing money-hungry seniors the ability to cash out of their life insurance policies early. 

Checking in checks out
The story hasn't changed a whole lot for these stocks this month. American Public Education was the only one of the bunch to put out material news over the past two weeks, when it posted market-thumping quarterly results. It has now beaten Wall Street expectations in each of its first five quarters as a public company.

Life Partners was perhaps the most controversial pick -- something that must make TASER secretly envious -- as the result of a gloomy report from the bearish sleuths at Citron Research a month earlier. But the company was already trading well below where it was when Citron penned its pessimistic treatise on Feb. 11.

Many of Citron's critiques do warrant further consideration, including its concerns about the CEO's past and the company's ability to keep its fees from shrinking in an increasingly competitive climate for life settlements. However, many of the other knocks -- like fears of the stability of the life insurance industry and a lack of analyst coverage -- are flimsy at best.

Either way, the market for life settlements is promising at a time when other capital-raising outlets for seniors like reverse mortgages and opening credit lines aren't feasible.

The arguments for Netflix and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters are less controversial. If a Green Mountain licensed K-Cup lets me make a cup of premium flavored coffee at home for the equivalent of roughly $0.40, the convenience will win me over, even when I can afford the $4 double latte hit at Starbucks.

Netflix may not be as cheap as the buck rentals out of Redbox kiosks, or as immediate as the local Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI  ) store for major new releases, but as someone who has been a Netflix subscriber for seven years now, I can tell you that its convenience is addictive.

As a member of the Rule Breakers newsletter team, I'm tasked with unearthing consumer stocks that are disrupting their sectors. I don't have one of the picks in this month's new issue -- which comes out tonight, actually -- but I wish I did. The way the market's been rallying these days, who wouldn't want to step up to plate with the bases loaded?

These stocks may be built for a recession, but since Mr. Market's still showing them some love as optimism begins to rise, they could do just as well in an economic recovery, too.

Other ways to coast through recessionary pressures:

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

Starbucks is a Motley Fool Inside Value pick. Starbucks and Netflix are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. TASER International is a former Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation. The Fool owns shares of Starbucks. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has been a Netflix shareholder -- and subscriber -- since 2002. Rick is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 20, 2009, at 7:31 PM, quant2325 wrote:

    Rick Aristotle Munarriz must be an idiot. LPHI has earnings that can’t be sustained or are simply fraudulent. Their margins are double the industry average yet they have no technological or business model advantage. This means they charge double the standard industry-wide maximum agreed upon commission to settle a life insurance policy! Are the policy holders and their advisors that stupid in what is a very “negotiated-oriented” industry? Of course not.

    Their reported policy size more than doubled too, suggesting they are either taking in investor owned deals with insurable interest questions, making up policies similar to Equity Funding (remember Equity Funding made Ray Dirk famous before he became infamous), or laundering money for people who purchase and later sell or large insurance policies. LPHI has problems from the Colorado attorney general with how they sell what the AG claims is unregistered “securities” to individual investors. LPHI also uses a relatively tiny accounting firm, which always raises a red flag to me. Worse, the accounting firm has a bunch of penny stocks as customers.

    Of course I could be wrong. But if I am right reported sales will continue to rise as CFFO--not EBITDA--starts to fall. Shortly thereafter Rick Aristotle Munarriz and Motley Fool will look like morons for suggesting a long position in LPHI.

  • Report this Comment On March 20, 2009, at 10:31 PM, JohnQGalt wrote:

    On February 11, 2009, an online blog entitled “Citron Research” issued a negative report about Life Partners Holdings, Inc. The author of this report, Mr. Andrew Left, is well known as a purveyor of negative information in order to successfully short trade the stocks on which he reports. Consequently, on the day that the Citron Research web posting was made, LPHI’s stock traded 1.2 million shares or just under 10x its average daily trading volume. We would hasten to point out that unlike legitimate stock research firms; the opinion posted to the Citron Research site was written and posted without the benefit of any contact with Life Partners or a history of covering the life settlement industry. Consequently, the author’s research and conclusions are incorrect because the report is based on faulty assumptions, misinformation or statements not borne out by fact.

    NOTE: We believe that the ability to short is a legitimate option for investors and provides a useful function in our capital markets generally, but that the practice is also open to abuse when deliberate misinformation is propagated for the benefit of few and at the expense of other shareholders.

    Questions/Answers:

    Q. What is Citron Research?

    A. Citron Research positions itself as a legitimate stock research house, but is actually just a Web site run by Andrew Left, a well known short seller who actively targets small-cap stocks. A 2008 review proudly claims that “8 of the 11 stocks Citron covered performed worse than even the adverse market of 2008. Only 1 of the 11 is trading moderately higher than when we first reported it (HEV), and we do not believe that will be for much longer.”

    Q. Where did Andrew Left get his data for the Life Partners report?

    A. This report was written and issued without the benefit of any contact with Life Partners or a history of covering the life settlement industry. The author’s research and conclusions are inaccurate because the report is based on faulty assumptions and misinformation not borne out by fact.

    Q. One of Mr. Left’s major points is about LPHI’s fees being higher than other life settlements companies? Is this true?

    A. LPHI is the only publicly traded life settlement companies operating today. As a result, Mr. Left used a single line in our own public filing to propagate a complete fabrication. As disclosed in our last 10Q, our net revenues for the 9 months (exclusive of cost of revenue) were $39,919,000 on face value of $564,630,481. This equals fees of 7% of face. Hardly what most would consider egregious and well in line for companies with specialized knowledge that are paid on a success fee basis.

    You can do the math yourself using information from our 10Q for the 9 months ended November 30, 2008 at page 16:

    The following table shows the number of settlement contracts we have transacted, the aggregate face values of those contracts, and the revenues we derived, for the periods ended November 30, 2008 and 2007:

    Periods Ended November 30, 2008

    Periods Ended November 30, 2007

    Three Months

    Nine Months

    Three Months

    Nine Months

    Number of settlements 56 154 52 153

    Face value of policies $195,459,950 $564,630,481 $125,897,330 $293,303,574

    Average revenue per settlement $501,856 $502,148 $371,129 $356,365

    Net revenues derived* $14,246,000 $39,919,000 $9,874,000 $27,372,000

    * The revenues derived are exlusive of brokerage and referral fees.

    As you can see, $40MM / $564 MM = 7%, not 14%. Of course, market forces may permit us to increase our margins somewhat, but there is no question that 7% is sustainable and the continued growth in the market means that we should continue to experience sustainable growth as we have previously said.

    Also, it’s only because of LPHI’s extraordinary transparency that these fees are made public. We’d like to know the sources that Mr. Left used to cite “industry norm” fees of 6 percent. No other life settlement company publishes audited fee structures.

    Unlike mutual funds, hedge funds or other derivatives, LPHI’s business model is the most cost effective way for accredited investors to own life settlements. LPHI does not charge any annual management fees or share in the profits of investors. As noted by Conning Research & Consulting, Inc. “This approach . . lowers their investment costs because they do not pay management fees to a portfolio manager.” Life Settlement Market: Increasing Capital and Investor Demand 2007 p. 56.

    In addition, because its retail clients have direct fractional ownership of policies, they are insulated from any fund management risk. In other words, hedge funds are a “black box” while LPHI’s transactions are a “glass box.”

    Q. Is LPHI’s business model sustainable?

    A. Not only is the business model sustainable, LPHI is poised for significant growth across the next 10 years. A 2007 Conning Research & Co. predicted that gross market size of the life settlement industry will grow to $150 billion by 2016, from an estimated $7 billion that year. The company fundamentals behind LPHI have not changed in any way and earnings continue to be on course to meet expectations.

    Q. Citron calls out the accounting firm that provides auditing services to LPHI as being a small and inexperienced working with publicly traded companies. What company currently serves is LPHI’s auditor and is it reliable?

    A. Citron is in error about the company’s auditors. As of August 1, 2008, the firm it discusses merged with Eide Bailly who now serves as the company’s auditors. Eide Bailly is one of the top 25 accounting firms in the nation with over 39,000 clients and 20 offices in 9 states.

    Q. Are life insurance companies currently in danger of bankruptcy?

    A. Life insurance companies are among the most heavily regulated companies with regard to solvency. Like most financial institutions worldwide, insurers have recently suffered unrealized losses on their balance sheets and their earnings have suffered in the wake of the financial crisis. However, most experts agree that insurance companies do not have the liquidity issues that banks have. LPHI only acquires policies from insurers that have an B+ or better rating, per A.M. Best & Co.

    Even during the Great Depression of the early 1930s, life insurance companies continued to pay its policy obligations and there is no credible evidence to suggest otherwise today.

    Q. Is LPHI under attack from state and federal regulators?

    A. Mr. Left cites excerpts from allegations by Colorado regulators to support a “doom and gloom” conclusion for the company. However, had Mr. Left been intellectually honest he would have reported that this action has been resolved as reported in the company’s last 10-Q and that despite the initial claims of the Commissioner’s complaint, there was no finding of fraud in the Court’s order. Also, the Colorado Securities Commissioner acknowledged and stipulated to the court that “no investor has alleged or asserted any impropriety against LPI with respect to their investment and all purchasers represented themselves to be accredited investors prior to investing.”

    Because life settlements are a relatively new class of asset, there are complex and sometimes contradictory regulations between states and the federal government. LPHI has been working with state and federal regulatory agencies throughout its existence to develop rules which make it easier for senior Americans to unlock the hidden value in the insurance policies.

    For example, the company filed a case in federal court to clarify whether it was constitutional for Florida state regulators to limit Florida residents’ ability to go outside the state and sell their policies to Life Partners in order to get the greatest value.

    In every case brought against LPHI, these actions have been resolved, without any findings of fraud or other improprieties. These previous actions were brought due to a limited public understanding of a completely new asset class and as education continues these actions will diminish drastically. LPHI has been operating successfully for almost 20 years.

    Q. What about the questions about LPHI’s CEO, Mr. Pardo? Was he sanctioned by the SEC in a previous company?

    In a case relating to a revenue recognition reporting issue which arose based on the advice of accountants, Mr. Pardo entered into a consent decree with the SEC. In that order, there were no fines, penalties or other sanction imposed and Mr. Pardo entered the agreement in order to resolve the issue amicably.

    No such accounting issues exist with LPHI or any other member of its senior management team, and Mr. Left does not assert that one exists. LPHI has operated successfully for nearly 20 years and in full compliance with both industry and securities regulations.

    Q. Why don’t more analyst firms cover LPHI?

    A. It is well known that the vast majority of small and medium capitalization companies have no analyst coverage whatsoever. This situation is driven more by shrinking research departments and the names they cover than with the individual merits of a company such as ours. But Citron’s information is wrong on this point. Life Partners recently announced that subscriber-based Singular Research also covers the company.

    Q. Why aren’t there more companies doing life settlement? Should the lack of competition raise red flags for investors?

    A. As discussed recently during one of our shareholders conference calls, competition for policies has decreased due to the fact that many of LPHI’s competitors utilized leveraged strategies. With the credit crisis that started in 2008, many of these companies simply ran out of money to purchase policies. This speaks more to the vindication of the company’s operating strategy and prudence, something left out of Mr. Left’s opinion piece.

    Q. Why has the mainstream business media picked up the “Citron Research” report and cited it as a legitimate news source?

    A. Several news organizations have mentioned the Citron piece as a credible news source in reporting LPHI’s turbulent trading. We are baffled by this development and feel that had the media done any research into Mr. Left’s organizations, they would have been more careful about reporting his Web site as a legitimate news source. Other, more prudent news organizations have acknowledged that Citron Research offers no evidence of anything more than one individual’s opinion.

    Of particular interest is CNBC’s Jim Cramer who, on September 4, 2007, proclaimed LPHI to be a: 'Miraculous company. ... They've created a secondary market in life insurance. It's a brilliant business model. I liked it before, and I like it again.'

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/20585596/

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/46399-jim-cramer-s-mad-money...

    Our company has done its best to provide value to our clients and to grow our shareholders’ wealth. American investors have taken a beating over the past year and LPHI may have been one of your only stocks to show positive gains. Investors depend on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to protect them from illegal market manipulation and to help keep the market a level playing field. If you feel that LPHI stock has been illegally manipulated to benefit a few of the “financial elite”, we urge you to contact the SEC, ask them to look into this matter immediately and, if illegal activity is found, to prosecute such activity and send a clear message to investors that market manipulation will not be tolerated.

  • Report this Comment On March 20, 2009, at 10:35 PM, JohnQGalt wrote:

    On February 11, 2009, an online blog entitled “Citron Research” issued a negative report about Life Partners Holdings, Inc. The author of this report, Mr. Andrew Left, is well known as a purveyor of negative information in order to successfully short trade the stocks on which he reports. Consequently, on the day that the Citron Research web posting was made, LPHI’s stock traded 1.2 million shares or just under 10x its average daily trading volume. We would hasten to point out that unlike legitimate stock research firms; the opinion posted to the Citron Research site was written and posted without the benefit of any contact with Life Partners or a history of covering the life settlement industry. Consequently, the author’s research and conclusions are incorrect because the report is based on faulty assumptions, misinformation or statements not borne out by fact.

    NOTE: We believe that the ability to short is a legitimate option for investors and provides a useful function in our capital markets generally, but that the practice is also open to abuse when deliberate misinformation is propagated for the benefit of few and at the expense of other shareholders.

    Questions/Answers:

    Q. What is Citron Research?

    A. Citron Research positions itself as a legitimate stock research house, but is actually just a Web site run by Andrew Left, a well known short seller who actively targets small-cap stocks. A 2008 review proudly claims that “8 of the 11 stocks Citron covered performed worse than even the adverse market of 2008. Only 1 of the 11 is trading moderately higher than when we first reported it (HEV), and we do not believe that will be for much longer.”

    Q. Where did Andrew Left get his data for the Life Partners report?

    A. This report was written and issued without the benefit of any contact with Life Partners or a history of covering the life settlement industry. The author’s research and conclusions are inaccurate because the report is based on faulty assumptions and misinformation not borne out by fact.

    Q. One of Mr. Left’s major points is about LPHI’s fees being higher than other life settlements companies? Is this true?

    A. LPHI is the only publicly traded life settlement companies operating today. As a result, Mr. Left used a single line in our own public filing to propagate a complete fabrication. As disclosed in our last 10Q, our net revenues for the 9 months (exclusive of cost of revenue) were $39,919,000 on face value of $564,630,481. This equals fees of 7% of face. Hardly what most would consider egregious and well in line for companies with specialized knowledge that are paid on a success fee basis.

    You can do the math yourself using information from our 10Q for the 9 months ended November 30, 2008 at page 16:

    The following table shows the number of settlement contracts we have transacted, the aggregate face values of those contracts, and the revenues we derived, for the periods ended November 30, 2008 and 2007:

    Periods Ended November 30, 2008

    Periods Ended November 30, 2007

    Three Months

    Nine Months

    Three Months

    Nine Months

    Number of settlements 56 154 52 153

    Face value of policies $195,459,950 $564,630,481 $125,897,330 $293,303,574

    Average revenue per settlement $501,856 $502,148 $371,129 $356,365

    Net revenues derived* $14,246,000 $39,919,000 $9,874,000 $27,372,000

    * The revenues derived are exlusive of brokerage and referral fees.

    As you can see, $40MM / $564 MM = 7%, not 14%. Of course, market forces may permit us to increase our margins somewhat, but there is no question that 7% is sustainable and the continued growth in the market means that we should continue to experience sustainable growth as we have previously said.

    Also, it’s only because of LPHI’s extraordinary transparency that these fees are made public. We’d like to know the sources that Mr. Left used to cite “industry norm” fees of 6 percent. No other life settlement company publishes audited fee structures.

    Unlike mutual funds, hedge funds or other derivatives, LPHI’s business model is the most cost effective way for accredited investors to own life settlements. LPHI does not charge any annual management fees or share in the profits of investors. As noted by Conning Research & Consulting, Inc. “This approach . . lowers their investment costs because they do not pay management fees to a portfolio manager.” Life Settlement Market: Increasing Capital and Investor Demand 2007 p. 56.

    In addition, because its retail clients have direct fractional ownership of policies, they are insulated from any fund management risk. In other words, hedge funds are a “black box” while LPHI’s transactions are a “glass box.”

    Q. Is LPHI’s business model sustainable?

    A. Not only is the business model sustainable, LPHI is poised for significant growth across the next 10 years. A 2007 Conning Research & Co. predicted that gross market size of the life settlement industry will grow to $150 billion by 2016, from an estimated $7 billion that year. The company fundamentals behind LPHI have not changed in any way and earnings continue to be on course to meet expectations.

    Q. Citron calls out the accounting firm that provides auditing services to LPHI as being a small and inexperienced working with publicly traded companies. What company currently serves is LPHI’s auditor and is it reliable?

    A. Citron is in error about the company’s auditors. As of August 1, 2008, the firm it discusses merged with Eide Bailly who now serves as the company’s auditors. Eide Bailly is one of the top 25 accounting firms in the nation with over 39,000 clients and 20 offices in 9 states.

    Q. Are life insurance companies currently in danger of bankruptcy?

    A. Life insurance companies are among the most heavily regulated companies with regard to solvency. Like most financial institutions worldwide, insurers have recently suffered unrealized losses on their balance sheets and their earnings have suffered in the wake of the financial crisis. However, most experts agree that insurance companies do not have the liquidity issues that banks have. LPHI only acquires policies from insurers that have an B+ or better rating, per A.M. Best & Co.

    Even during the Great Depression of the early 1930s, life insurance companies continued to pay its policy obligations and there is no credible evidence to suggest otherwise today.

    Q. Is LPHI under attack from state and federal regulators?

    A. Mr. Left cites excerpts from allegations by Colorado regulators to support a “doom and gloom” conclusion for the company. However, had Mr. Left been intellectually honest he would have reported that this action has been resolved as reported in the company’s last 10-Q and that despite the initial claims of the Commissioner’s complaint, there was no finding of fraud in the Court’s order. Also, the Colorado Securities Commissioner acknowledged and stipulated to the court that “no investor has alleged or asserted any impropriety against LPI with respect to their investment and all purchasers represented themselves to be accredited investors prior to investing.”

    Because life settlements are a relatively new class of asset, there are complex and sometimes contradictory regulations between states and the federal government. LPHI has been working with state and federal regulatory agencies throughout its existence to develop rules which make it easier for senior Americans to unlock the hidden value in the insurance policies.

    For example, the company filed a case in federal court to clarify whether it was constitutional for Florida state regulators to limit Florida residents’ ability to go outside the state and sell their policies to Life Partners in order to get the greatest value.

    In every case brought against LPHI, these actions have been resolved, without any findings of fraud or other improprieties. These previous actions were brought due to a limited public understanding of a completely new asset class and as education continues these actions will diminish drastically. LPHI has been operating successfully for almost 20 years.

    Q. What about the questions about LPHI’s CEO, Mr. Pardo? Was he sanctioned by the SEC in a previous company?

    In a case relating to a revenue recognition reporting issue which arose based on the advice of accountants, Mr. Pardo entered into a consent decree with the SEC. In that order, there were no fines, penalties or other sanction imposed and Mr. Pardo entered the agreement in order to resolve the issue amicably.

    No such accounting issues exist with LPHI or any other member of its senior management team, and Mr. Left does not assert that one exists. LPHI has operated successfully for nearly 20 years and in full compliance with both industry and securities regulations.

    Q. Why don’t more analyst firms cover LPHI?

    A. It is well known that the vast majority of small and medium capitalization companies have no analyst coverage whatsoever. This situation is driven more by shrinking research departments and the names they cover than with the individual merits of a company such as ours. But Citron’s information is wrong on this point. Life Partners recently announced that subscriber-based Singular Research also covers the company.

    Q. Why aren’t there more companies doing life settlement? Should the lack of competition raise red flags for investors?

    A. As discussed recently during one of our shareholders conference calls, competition for policies has decreased due to the fact that many of LPHI’s competitors utilized leveraged strategies. With the credit crisis that started in 2008, many of these companies simply ran out of money to purchase policies. This speaks more to the vindication of the company’s operating strategy and prudence, something left out of Mr. Left’s opinion piece.

    Q. Why has the mainstream business media picked up the “Citron Research” report and cited it as a legitimate news source?

    A. Several news organizations have mentioned the Citron piece as a credible news source in reporting LPHI’s turbulent trading. We are baffled by this development and feel that had the media done any research into Mr. Left’s organizations, they would have been more careful about reporting his Web site as a legitimate news source. Other, more prudent news organizations have acknowledged that Citron Research offers no evidence of anything more than one individual’s opinion.

    Of particular interest is CNBC’s Jim Cramer who, on September 4, 2007, proclaimed LPHI to be a: 'Miraculous company. ... They've created a secondary market in life insurance. It's a brilliant business model. I liked it before, and I like it again.'

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/20585596/

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/46399-jim-cramer-s-mad-money...

    Our company has done its best to provide value to our clients and to grow our shareholders’ wealth. American investors have taken a beating over the past year and LPHI may have been one of your only stocks to show positive gains. Investors depend on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to protect them from illegal market manipulation and to help keep the market a level playing field. If you feel that LPHI stock has been illegally manipulated to benefit a few of the “financial elite”, we urge you to contact the SEC, ask them to look into this matter immediately and, if illegal activity is found, to prosecute such activity and send a clear message to investors that market manipulation will not be tolerated.

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