Tomorrow's Monster Stock?

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Stocks climbing to 10 times their original price are rare breeds -- but they're not impossible to find. Especially when you have Fools for friends.

The market's best stocks include companies that have risen dozens of times in value by taking advantage of the market's weaknesses. These aren't penny stocks; they're viable companies with sound business prospects, achieving phenomenal returns but happen to share some common traits: They're small, obscure, and ignored. Finding just one or two of these monstrously successful firms can help you establish a winning portfolio.

Stalking the monster
To find tomorrow's winners, we've enlisted the help of more than 140,000 monster trackers at Motley Fool CAPS. We've compiled a list of the most successful CAPS members, dubbed All-Stars, whose picks have doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled in price. Then we've plucked out some of their recent picks for stocks they find equally promising.

Player

CAPS Member Rating

Monster Stock

CAPS Score

Recent Stock Pick

CAPS Rating (out of 5)

BravoBevo

100.00

First Solar

547.09

Sulphco (NYSE: SUF)

*

portefeuille

99.99

Dendreon

504.46

Ariad Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ARIA)

**

fransgeraedts

99.98

Human Genome Sciences

576.83

BioDelivery SciencesInternational (Nasdaq: BDSI)

****

CaptainFiveBaggr

99.89

Solutia

545.93

Sunrise Senior Living (NYSE: SRZ)

*****

Shouclack

99.81

Teck Resources

554.40

AES (NYSE: AES)

****

Of course, this is not a list of stocks to buy -- or, for those monster stocks that our CAPS All-Stars have already found, sell. Just consider them starting points for your own further research of extreme buying opportunities.

In search of Bigfoot
We know that the market is forward-looking, but just how far into the future is it peering for Ariad Pharmaceuticals? The development stage biotech still has a long way to go before being able to market its most advanced cancer treatment, ridaforolimus.

So far, Ariad has been surviving on the basis of collaboration with Merck (NYSE: MRK), and funding its losses through the issuance of securities. Just last month, it issued almost 22 million shares to raise some $35 million. Yet the market is pricing the stock at 30 times the revenue it generated primarily from Merck's milestone payments. Whatever potential there is in its lead drug candidate, and even though the courts will reconsider whether Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) infringed on its patents, that's a rich valuation for a company without any drugs on the market.

CAPS member exodus69 believes patience is needed when looking at Ariad's pipeline of potential drugs:

CEO just bought almost 2 million shares, which signals confidence in company going forward. Great pipeline, but requires a little patience since there's no late stage drug trials. Should outperform market as biotech becoming one of the more focused sectors of the investment community.

Dulling the pain
Patience can be a virtue. Investors in BioDelivery Sciences who had the fortitude to wait have been rewarded with the FDA's approval of Onsolis, a pain-management drug for cancer patients. Like Ariad, BioDelivery was relying upon the good graces of its partner Meda for milestone payments and the capital markets for issuing stock. It subsequently received a payout for Onsolis' approval and the drug will launch in the fourth quarter. Analysts anticipate the drug can generate upwards of $250 million annually in revenue, and perhaps much more if it can get off-label approval as well.

CAPS member pick1998 believes that when the market bid up shares on the rumor of approva,l only to sell BioDelivery off afterward, it provided investors with a good, long-term investment:

A good entry into a sound biotech company with a pipeline of unique drug delivery methods. FDA approval of Onsolis with first REMS demonstrated the management's ability to push a drug through the regulatory path successfully. Recent price drop after FDA approval of Onsolis provides the rare entry point into this long term growth biotech stock with minimal risk! Buy whatever you can, and hold for a few years. It is best to put BDSI into your retirement account.

A chance for scary growth
It takes more than a few All-Star picks and a quick paragraph to make buy or sell decisions so start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. You can read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made all from a stock's CAPS page. And while you're there, weigh in with your own thoughts on whether you think these are tomorrow's monster stocks.

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Fool contributor Rich Duprey owns shares of Merck but does not have a financial position in any of the other stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings here. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 05, 2009, at 12:53 AM, houseocards wrote:

    Actually, Ariad does have a Phase 3 trial ongoing for their lead drug candidate, ridaforolimus, in treatment of sarcomas. Interim results are due to be announced sometime in September 2009, according to the last conference call. An NDA could be filed on ridaforolimus as early as next year. Patience and caution is warranted, as with any biotech, but there are potential catalysts in the next several months.

  • Report this Comment On September 05, 2009, at 1:11 AM, portefeuille wrote:

    And please stop writing stuff like

    --------------------

    Yet the market is pricing the stock at 30 times the revenue it generated primarily from Merck's milestone payments.

    --------------------

    I hope no one bases his decision to buy or sell stocks like ARIA on "metrics" like that one.

    I saw that there is a biotech editor working for "the motley fool". What does he think about this metric?

    I almost never read these article but almost every time I do read one I start shaking my head after the first few sentences. And this article mentions me, so I thought it is okay to comment. There are a lot of high quality articles written in the "blog" section of the "caps" game. I think it would be a good decision to replace some of the "fool.com" articles by those.

  • Report this Comment On September 07, 2009, at 11:36 AM, TimoDOZ wrote:

    The AES is a great pick. However the cvrt Prf-C is clearly the great investment here. Now showing a very steady price near $40 with a $50 par value. Any significant market correction or sell off that would bring these shares in below $40 would be a great opportunity.

    This is a company that has recently restructured most of it's Short term debt to longer term refunding. We have a global company that allows a flight from the US Pe$o and will have a good deal of it's earnings going forward from emerging market & commodity currency economies. This will strengthen earnings considerably as against the long term weakening of the US Pe$o against a "virtual" reserve currency that is certainly to be created by some index publisher like S&P,Bloomberg,Credit suisse, UBS, any of these major sponsors of ETfs and CEfs. We already have these commodities indexes. It is just a mater of time before something is concocted to measure world currencies against a basket of intrinsic value. With the decline in the standard of living in the developed nations goes the inclining living in these other Asian and South of Quito economies. AES despite set backs in some of these places with confiscation and cancellations such as has been experienced in Venezuela, India etc, will continue to be a big player in electrifying these places even the ones that have to come crawling back.

    As part of their construction projects that use the high speed completion time Gas Turbine technology, they have become a very large participant in the global LNG supply and infrastructure businesses. With global gas prices so depressed, right here this very week perhaps bottoming ,against the anticipation of the Northern Hemi heating season, these gas investments may in fact provide leverage going forward.

    Why would you own the common and have to sit on it with it being equity with out yield, against this very uncertain global economic period. AES is a winning story going forward. With the Cee you can always convert and if the price of AES rises substantially then it will ,certainly trade above par. A look at WLL/A and HCN-G are examples of what happens to these cvts IF the common gets a bid under it. It is probably too late to participate in those but the Cee...

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Related Tickers

12/2/2009 4:00 PM
ARIA $2.44 Up +0.14 +6.09%
Ariad Pharmaceutic… CAPS Rating: ***
SRZ $3.32 Up +0.08 +2.47%
Sunrise Senior Liv… CAPS Rating: **
AES $13.06 Down -0.08 -0.61%
The AES Corp CAPS Rating: ****
MRK $36.80 Down -0.08 -0.22%
Merck & Co., Inc. CAPS Rating: ****
BDSI $4.01 Up +0.09 +2.30%
BIODELIVERY SCIENC… CAPS Rating: *****
LLY $37.51 Up +0.42 +1.13%
Eli Lilly & Co. CAPS Rating: ****

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