2-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: First Solar?

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Based on the aggregated intelligence of 140,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, solar power-cell maker First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at First Solar's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

First Solar facts

Headquarters (Founded)

Tempe, Ariz. (1999)

Market Cap

$13.1 billion

Industry

Specialized semiconductor

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$1.73 billion

Management

CEO Robert Gillette (since October 2009)
CFO Jens Meyerhoff (since May 2006)

Return on Capital (Average, Past 3 Years)

14.4%

Price-to-Cash Flow (FSLR and S&P 500)

30.2 and 6.8

Competitors

Suntech Power (NYSE: STP)
Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE)
SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWRA)

CAPS Members Bearish on FSLR Also Bearish on

Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN)
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)

CAPS Members Bullish on FSLR Also Bullish on

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 20% of the 3,715 members who have rated First Solar believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include All-Star Grza29, who is ranked in the top 20% of our community, and ArgusPanoptes.

Earlier this month, Grza29 touched on the dark cloud hovering over First Solar's moat: "Cost advantage of thin-film has been erased by the drop of polysilicon, putting [First Solar] in a commodity pricing environment against the PV makers."

In a pitch from last month, ArgusPanoptes also focused on the not-so-sunny side of things:

It's a hot potato isn't it? All that money rushing so fast ... into an industry where a small change could be the big difference. There are too many smart people with upcoming products, preparing to cut into the pie. Company will succeed in their vision, but the stock won't be the vision of the shareholders. The push into the physical reality of big solar will be slow and steady but mostly slow.

What do you think about First Solar, or any other stock for that matter? Make your voice heard on Motley Fool CAPS today. The CAPS community is waiting to hear your opinions. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

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Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. First Solar, Suntech, and Google are Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendations. Amazon and Apple are selections of Stock Advisor. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 21, 2009, at 1:54 PM, solargrid wrote:

    While the large players may be over priced, long-time CIGS developer, DayStar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:DSTI), is cheap (nr 52 wk low) after building their new California-based manufacturing plant in Silicon Valley.

    Their single-stage deposition technology and utility-grade panels provide 10% efficiency (nearly twice that of amorphous silicon - A-SI), fast panel assembly, and no vulnerability to the silicon raw material market.

    Technology offers near poly-crystalline efficiency levels and much lower cost / watt mix than silicon panels offered by YGE, STP, etc. Seeking Fed loan now to roll out utility-scale production start.

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