How One Stock Changes Everything

Do you remember where you were in August 1994 and what you were doing? When I tell you where I was, you may not believe it (of course, you have to read to the end to find out -- that's how I get paid!).

Were you at least buying stocks?
I wasn't. I sure as heck wasn't gambling $1,800 on some "Internet" company you'd never heard of. But somebody was, and he was about to make a lot of money. I know this for two reasons.

First, that one trade made this guy a celebrity in these parts. Second, he told us exactly what he was going to do so we could follow his lead, before he went long, and then tracked his returns online in real time (talk about guts).

Five years later, the shares he bought for a split-adjusted $0.46 crested atop $50. Before you could say "Mad Money," Money.com called him "among the most widely followed stock market advisors in the world," and his $1,800 stake ballooned to $190,000.

Yes, you read that right
That stock was America Online -- and that guy was Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner. It helped that we were in a massive bull market. But that doesn't explain everything. The fact is, David identified a first-mover in an emerging, important industry that was about to change everything -- and had the guts to buy it.

Yes, the stock has been pounded since, but this may surprise you: David's AOL investment is still up -- way up. If you'd bought AOL with him, you'd be up, too. If you caught a wave that was already building and bought another tech leader like Dell (Nasdaq: DELL  ) or even Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) instead, you'd be up roughly 2,600% or 1,900%, respectively.

You could have rolled the dice on old-school IBM (NYSE: IBM  ) or Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO  ) , a tech darling held up as a poster child for the tech-stock bubble, and you still would have outperformed most "alternative" nonequity investments, including molybdenum (whatever that is).

Maybe that doesn't surprise you ...
But it sure surprised me. In fact, given all the talk about the death of long-term investing, it's got me revisiting two long-held beliefs. The first led to an affirmation of sorts. The second was an epiphany. First, the affirmation.

At my age, I have to invest. For me, that means buying stocks, whether the market looks overvalued or cheap -- and not selling. That last part goes double whenever I manage to catch lightning in a bottle, like David Gardner did with AOL in 1994. And it does happen.

In fact, AOL wasn't the only life-changing investment in Gardner's original Rule Breaker portfolio. He also bought Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX  ) and Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN  ) in 1998 -- two other home-run stocks. But take away that one 2,600% winner, and David looks downright human, right? Maybe not. More on that just ahead.

But now, the epiphany!
Slow and steady may not win the race. I typically side with David's stodgy brother, Tom -- who insists there is money to be made on tried-and-true cash machines like Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  ) -- and reams of data supporting Warren Buffett's steady-as-she-goes, win-by-rarely-losing value approach.

But I wonder: What if David's right to point out that we don't always have to get on base -- that most nights, we only need a few big swings to win the game? What if he's right to point out that even if nine out of every 10 stocks we buy goes to absolute zero, we'll still break even if we find just one 10-bagger?

Well, it's true. Plus, what are the chances that nine out of 10 of our companies will go belly-up? Not too good, I'd say. And that's assuming we only land one 10-bagger -- a rock-solid 900% gainer. (One dollar turned into $10 is a 900% gain.)

Because I have news for you ...
"The Tortoise and the Hare" isn't a true story. It's not even based on one. Take away AOL, Starbucks, Amazon, and the other big winners ... and the guy's pretty average. But that's crazy talk. You don't compare the batting average of a singles hitter with that of a slugger.

The fact is, David Gardner's kamikaze style works over the long run. And not just in the '90s. A few years back, David launched a new Rule Breakers newsletter to see if he could find this decade's great growth stories. How's he going to do it? He starts with a six-point checklist:

  1. Is it a top dog and first-mover in an important, emerging industry?
  2. Does it have a sustainable advantage?
  3. Does it have strong past price appreciation?
  4. Does it have good management with smart backing?
  5. Does it have strong consumer appeal?
  6. Has it been called overvalued by the media?

A stock with all six traits is a Rule Breaker in the making. You see, Gardner's never been about eking out a few points over the market. He's about hitting a handful of home runs and walking off into the sunset. Does that take guts? Sure, but I've seen him at work for a long time, and he's proved himself to me.

And I can tell you that since I started following his Rule Breakers scorecard in October 2004, he has led me to more than a dozen stocks have doubled in value or more -- including five that have more than tripled.

Want to get a few more home runs in your portfolio? You can use David's six-point checklist to get started, but here's a better idea. Take a free trial of his Motley Fool Rule Breakers service. That way you can sample the complete service for one month without paying a cent and take a peek at every single recommendation right away. To learn more about this free trial, click here.

Already subscribe to Rule Breakers? Log in at the top of this page.

This article was first published May 31, 2007. It has been updated.

In 1994, Paul Elliott was writing bad poetry and banging around the Midwest in a Ford Econoline. He owns Johnson & Johnson, a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. Apple, Starbucks, and Amazon are Stock Advisor recommendations. You can see all of David Gardner's Rule Breakers picks and his entire scorecard with your 30-day free trial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (0) | Recommend This Article (3)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

Be the first one to comment on this article.

Sponsored Links

Leaked: Apple's Next Smart Device
(Warning, it may shock you)
The secret is out... experts are predicting 458 million of these types of devices will be sold per year. 1 hyper-growth company stands to rake in maximum profit - and it's NOT Apple. Show me Apple's new smart gizmo!

DocumentId: 1098307, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 10/23/2014 8:03:39 AM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...


Advertisement