Recs

10

2-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Baidu?

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 160,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, Chinese search giant Baidu.com (Nasdaq: BIDU  ) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Baidu's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Baidu facts

Headquarters (Founded)

Beijing, China (2000)

Market Cap

$19 billion

Industry

Internet software and services

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$651.5 million

Management

Co-Founder/CEO Yanhong Li
CFO Jennifer Li

Trailing-12-Month Return on Equity

37.9%

Price-to-Earnings (BIDU and S&P 500)

120.5 and 19.1

1-Year Return

225%

Competitors

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  )
Sohu.com (Nasdaq: SOHU  )
SINA (Nasdaq: SINA  )

Strategic Partners

Nokia (NYSE: NOK  )
Ominture (Nasdaq: OMTR  )

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 16% of the 3,733 members who have rated Baidu believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include DarthMaul09 and mistercube.

Less than two months ago, DarthMaul09 nicely described his bear call on Baidu: "Speculative bet that Internet searches are not a high priority for the Chinese government. Google's problem with China should not suggest that Baidu has an advantage, but that it may not be easy for any information company to work with China."

In a pitch from one week earlier, mistercube also explained why there are more profitable places to search:

Search is not a zero-sum game; Google's losses aren't necessarily Baidu's gains.

What hasn't gained traction yet is the notion that Google users, even IF that company were to withdraw from the Chinese market, might simply opt for [Yahoo!] or [Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) ] search rather than flocking to [Baidu].

Finally, what happens if/when the Chinese state severs the tethering of their currency to the dollar? The domestic option could seem less attractive by comparison. Coupled with my own personal (and possibly misplaced) skepticism regarding the transparency and reliability of Chinese corporations' profits, I just can't imagine buying here. If you must buy search, why not just buy Google for the many reasons already named by people in this forum?

What do you think about Baidu, or any other stock for that matter? If you want to retire rich, you need to protect your portfolio from any undue risk. Staying away from dangerous stocks is crucial to securing your financial future, and on Motley Fool CAPS, thousands of investors are working every day to flag them. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

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Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Microsoft and Nokia are Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations. Baidu, Google, and Sohu.com are Motley Fool Rule Breakers selections. Sina is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick. Motley Fool Options has recommended a diagonal call position on Microsoft. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 15, 2010, at 11:56 AM, teddipoo8699 wrote:

    Respectfully, Long, long ago , many wise investors jseted about Chinese stocks. Time has proven them wrong. Now , as then, I do not underetimate the power of the Chinese Economy nor their stock market. Baidu is what it is, no U.S. search company can beat them at their game on their own turf , IMO. As it is here in the U.S,.....who can beat Google?????

    Again, I think some of the naysayers are sour grapes, for whatever reason....they were wrong then and IMO they are still wrong......transparency ,or lack thereof , is not exclusively with the Chines Stock Makret,.....our stock market , if truth be told, is not the POSTER CHILD for transparency either.

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