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Is LinkedIn a $4 Billion Company?

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Investors hungry for a pure play on social networking will have a new name to chew on this week.

LinkedIn is on track to price its IPO tomorrow night and begin trading publicly come Thursday.

It's going to be a hot deal. Underwriters now expect to price the offering between $42 and $45 a share, $10 above its previous range. In other words, demand is scintillating. It shouldn't surprise anyone to see the stock open above $50 -- if not $60 -- when Mr. Market gets a crack at the freshly minted shares.

Is LinkedIn's valuation making promises that its fundamentals can't keep?

LinkedIn's new range implies a market cap of roughly $4 billion given the roughly 90 million shares that will be outstanding. This may seem like a Web 2.0 bargain compared to what Facebook, Groupon, and Twitter will ultimately fetch on the open market, but it's not cheap.

As the world's largest professional network, LinkedIn connects more than 90 million largely white-collar users around the world. It's a big number, but it's not as if these users are spending as long on the site as they are on the more social network in Facebook.

Revenue more than doubled to $243.1 million last year. Profitability had been elusive until LinkedIn earned a modest $15.4 million last year. Is that worth $4 billion plus whatever pop it nabs in two days?

Users did amass 5.5 billion page views during the final quarter of last year, so there is a healthy degree of engagement even if it's not Facebook's level of stickiness. Whether someone's looking for work, trying to fill a vacancy, or simply has a burning question for peers, LinkedIn is there as the new face of professional networking. Job listings giant Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW  ) and niche hub Dice (NYSE: DHX  ) certainly aren't growing this quickly. Even the online recruiting arm of China's red-hot 51job (Nasdaq: JOBS  ) comes off as a relative slacker when pitted against LinkedIn's heady growth.

If LinkedIn is truly revolutionizing the way white-collar job searches and head-hunting is done, one can argue that $4 billion is a bargain compared to the juicy upside. However, if this is just investors hyping up any social network -- the way they have with Latin America's Quepasa (AMEX: QPSA  ) and China's Renren (NYSE: RENN  ) -- one has to wonder if LinkedIn will simply be batting practice before Facebook hits the field.

Are you buying or passing on LinkedIn's IPO? Share your thoughts in the comment box below?

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

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Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended 51job. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz remembers when social networks were an offline endeavor. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also a member of the Rule Breakers analytical team, seeking out the next great growth stock early in its defiance. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On May 19, 2011, at 11:48 AM, samedge2 wrote:

    No chance. I subscribed to their "premier" service for a year and it was basically useless. Unless the person on the other end was a power user or recruiter/employer, chances of getting bites was slim. I think most of their money is made from the recruiting side, but it's of little value to the recruited.

    I like them more as a buyout candidate in the future. Oh and they're currently trading at 521 times earnings. Give me a break.

  • Report this Comment On May 19, 2011, at 12:22 PM, Socialnetwork wrote:

    Investors,

    WOW look at LNKD, up close to 140%, all smart investors out there get on the band wagon of Social networking, so many smart minds already realized that this is the next big market, I pray god that all the people who are on the short side come out of it at the earliest.

    I heard the other way these giant social networking site like LNKD, FACEBOOK, TWITTER etc grow by buying other small companies like QPSA etc, because over night LNKD cannot get 36million users that QPSA has and at the same time cannot get much awaited international growth.

    I'm long on QPSA and is going towards 30's and more in very short period of time.

    Imagine LNKD is 100mil users trading at 110/share, how much QPSA with 36 mil should trade at, simple math investors, rest all I leave it up to gurus.

    I'm long on QPSA.

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:00 PM
QPSA $3.18 Down -0.09 -2.75%
Quepasa Corp. CAPS Rating: *
RENN $4.74 Down -0.01 -0.21%
Renren Inc. CAPS Rating: **
MWW $8.64 Down -0.04 -0.46%
Monster Worldwide,… CAPS Rating: **
DHX $10.01 Down -0.01 -0.10%
Dice Holdings, Inc… CAPS Rating: **
JOBS $46.26 Down -0.33 -0.71%
51job CAPS Rating: ***

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