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2-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Travelzoo?

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, online travel deal company Travelzoo (Nasdaq: TZOO  ) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Travelzoo's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Travelzoo facts

Headquarters (Founded) New York (1998)
Market Cap $427.8 million
Industry Internet software and services
Trailing-12-Month Revenue $130.7 million
Management

CEO Christopher Loughlin (since July 2010)

CFO Glen Ceremony (since May 2011)

Return on Equity (Average, Past 3 Years) 24.4%
Cash/Debt $40.3 million / $0
Competitors

Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE  )

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  )

priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN  )

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 28% of the 667 members who have rated Travelzoo believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include jetamerica and Jeffrey2012.

This past summer, Jeffrey2012 nicely summed up the Travelzoo bear case:

This stock has no dominant market niche and few barriers to entry. ... In the last three years margins have continued to erode. ... A better bet is [Expedia] or [priceline] as well as numerous travel industry stocks. Insiders have been dumping large numbers of shares.

In fact, Travelzoo still sports a lofty price-to-cash flow multiple of 37.9. That represents a clear premium to listed rivals Expedia (7.2), Google (12.7), and priceline (24.3).

CAPS member Jeffrey2012 elaborates on the bear case:

Travelzoo's claim to fame is their entrance into the social coupon frenzy that seems to have gripped investors. Unfortunately for a lot of them, it's not as profitable as it seems. ...

The company's management is very suspect to me right now since they are just chasing a fad and are willing to risk a lot of margin for it. Not to mention it is overpriced and has no real credible advantage in the exploding market for social marketing. ... I'm not sure if I want to be in a fad company that will surely be taken down by the many competitors i.e. livingsocial, google, and the million of other sites that are catering to this niche.

What do you think about Travelzoo, or any other stock for that matter? If you want to retire rich, you need to protect your portfolio from any undue risk. Staying away from dangerous stocks is crucial to securing your financial future, and on Motley Fool CAPS, thousands of investors are working every day to flag them. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

Interested in another easy way to track Travelzoo? Add it to your watchlist.

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Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Travelzoo, Google, and priceline. The Motley Fool owns shares of Google. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 09, 2011, at 4:34 AM, rodessa wrote:

    I was sharing the opinion of Rich SMITH in a comment to his paper dated august 22 about TZOO.Travelzoo use NON-GAAP norms for its accountancy, not the norms generally admitted.Like that, they don't deduct $ 20 millions they paid to the state of Delaware.THE CASH FLOW WAS NEGATIVE DURING THE LAST QUATER.$ 13 millions last year.The net assets are of $ 32 millions (only $ 2.00 per share) more 6 years of cash flow, we arrive to a total amount of $ 110.00 millions (only $ 6.68 per share, THE REAL MARKET VALUE OF TZOO !!!!!)

    Between March 15 and June 15, the insiders of Travelzoo had sold together more than 6 MILLION OF SHARES ... BECAUSE THEY WERE THINKING THE QUOTE OF THESE SHARES WAS ALREADY TOO HIGH !!!!

    We observe the same thing for Lululemon (LULU) that had very recently a PER of more than 66, when big runners as NIKE (NKE) have a PER of less than 18.With net assets of only $ 3.60 per share, LULU is greatly over evaluated more than 3.5 times, and should come back to $ 13.00.Very good to short.

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DocumentId: 1566053, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 5/27/2012 12:02:58 PM

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:00 PM
TZOO $23.47 Up +0.52 +2.27%
Travelzoo CAPS Rating: **
PCLN $652.88 Down -16.09 -2.41%
Priceline.com CAPS Rating: **
GOOG $591.53 Down -12.13 -2.01%
Google CAPS Rating: ****
EXPE $44.89 Down -0.27 -0.60%
Expedia, Inc. CAPS Rating: **

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