The best stocks of the past 10 years all started small. That's documented fact, and it's something any investor putting together a portfolio should know.
But -- as many readers have pointed out -- that fact is also backward-looking. They want to know what the best stocks of the next 10 years will look like.
I'm no soothsayer, but I'll give it a college try ...
Far be it from me to shun the lessons of history, so I'll go out on a limb and predict that the best stocks of the next 10 years will start small -- as in a market cap of a few hundred million or less. Of course, if we take the world's major exchanges as our oyster, that means we're looking at more than 11,000 prospects.
In other words, it's not a big help, I know.
Of course, any tiny company that aspires to greatness will need significant tailwinds. A recent business trip gave me quite a few insights into a true hurricane-force gale.
We're live from the center of the storm, Bob
Small companies with big opportunities can be difficult to come by in the United States. That's because our economy is mature, and many industries are dominated by a handful of large-cap players. For instance, in pharmacies, there's already CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS ) and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG ) . Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) is the go-to name for construction equipment. And Lowe's (NYSE: LOW ) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD ) have conquered the home improvement space.
Any company that wants to make inroads in these industries has high hurdles to clear.
Where large-cap industries are dominated by small-cap companies
That, however, is not as much the case in a little country called China. Maybe you've heard of it. For a long time, the Chinese economy was the enterprise of the state. And though it's becoming more liberal, many sectors remain closed to foreign firms. This creates an enormous opportunity for small Chinese companies to take hold in newly private niches. And while the China story has been going on for years, it's still young. As Roth Capital's Gordon McBean told us during our visit to the firm's office in Shanghai, "It's not the seventh inning. It still feels early."
But investing in Chinese small caps isn't a risk-free proposition.
Will you pay to play?
Chinese stocks tend to be expensive. Of the 84 Chinese companies listed on the major U.S. exchanges, just 14 have a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) less than the S&P 500 average. And some of the better-known names, including Sina (Nasdaq: SINA ) and Sohu.com (Nasdaq: SOHU ) , have P/Es over 50.
Maybe those multiples are deserved. As Roth Capital noted in its February report on the Chinese economy, China has the world's best economic growth record -- posting 9.7% annual growth over the past 26 years. More important, that growth is expected to continue as urban migration and the development of western China roll onward.
Not much of a riddle
What do you get when you combine the world's fastest-growing economy, entrepreneurial small companies, and a political environment that effectively incubates these companies? A recipe for remarkable returns.
But don't go throwing money in blindly. That's how you'll get wiped out when growth slows and competition builds.
Instead, focus on finding the best-run small Chinese companies that are also operating within the widest niche market opportunities. Roth Capital's McBean has some tips:
- Steer clear of companies with government-run ownership structures. They won't be entrepreneurial enough.
- Don't invest in companies that compete against government-run companies. It won't be a level playing field.
- Keep tabs on the five-year plans the government releases. The Chinese government is efficient when it comes to achieving these goals. Find the companies that will help the government make its plans happen.
- Look for companies that will benefit from increasing consumer affluence. The Chinese are getting richer, and they're looking to spend on luxuries such as travel, designer clothes, and nice homes.
Get your Chinese small caps
While these tips are specific to investing in China, don't forget your investing fundamentals. That means doing a thorough background check on company's management group, and careful valuation work to make sure you don't overpay.
Motley Fool Global Gains advisor Bill Mann recently returned from a research trip to China, where he met with several companies that fit this model. You can get all of his updates from that trip, as well as a look at the international stocks he is recommending today, by joining Global Gains free for 30 days. After all, you don't want to miss out on one of the best stocks of the next 10 years.
This article was first published on June 18, 2007. It has been updated.