3 Stocks in a Tailspin

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9

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Individual stocks can surge 10%, 25%, or even higher in a short period of time. And they can fall just as far, just as quickly. For example, shares in Star Scientific met an end many had expected, falling 73% Wednesday after losing a patent dispute with tobacco giant RJ Reynolds.

Big drops in share price can signal material defects or new risks. But sometimes the pullbacks are simply part of the larger pessimism facing the market today. Fortunately, we have Motley Fool CAPS, a great resource to help us understand the larger picture behind big price drops.

Is the sky falling?
CAPS contains more than just the crowd's opinions. Its best-performing members' votes count more in shaping each company's rating than do the picks of their poorer-performing peers. That way, investors can intelligently use the collective wisdom of more than 135,000 CAPS members to make better decisions.

We'll use CAPS' handy stock screening tool to quickly zero in on companies that have been slashed by at least 15% in the last four weeks, and which have a market cap greater than $100 million and a beta of less than 3. If you want to run this screen for yourself, please do -- just keep in mind that the results will update with the market.

Company

CAPS Rating
(out of 5)

4-Week
Price Change

MBIA (NYSE: MBI)

*

(17.3%)

Melco Crown Entertainment (Nasdaq: MPEL)

****

(20.4%)

Coeur d`Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE)

****

(20.4%)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. Price return May 22 through June 16.

MBIA
Similar to another troubled bond insurer, Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK), MBIA has closed its doors to new business, and has been scrambling to maintain the solvency of the company. While the firm was once a cash-making machine, it's been involved in several lawsuits over the past several months. Most recently, it was sued by a group of 18 banks, including Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), over its split into two businesses to insulate its toxic assets. The credit rating of its structured finance business was cut to non-investment grade, leaving holders of policies written by the unit concerned about MBIA's ability to pay out claims.

As such, only half of the 991 CAPS members rating MBIA believe that its stock will outperform the market.

Melco Crown Entertainment
According to analysis by China-based casino operator Galaxy Entertainment, gambling revenue at all of the casinos in Macau was down 12.8% in the first quarter. Macau casino owner Melco saw its first-quarter revenue drop 55% compared to a year ago, while hitting an $0.08-per-share loss. But even with the slowdown in gambling, U.S. companies like Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) see big opportunity in Macau.

Melco has bet big on its $2.1 billion City of Dreams development in Macau, which could return it great sums of money or give it a new level of losses. Aptly, the company's CEO calls the recent opening a "turning point" for the company, and its success or failure will have a significant impact on gaming in Macau overall.

Many CAPS members see the new resort as a boon for business, and nearly 96% of the 1,145 members rating Melco Crown Entertainment expect the stock to beat the market.

Coeur d'Alene Mines
Standard & Poor's Ratings Service recently questioned Coeur d'Alene Mines' liquidity position, suggesting that additional external funding may be needed for its plans in capital spending. But the company's CEO anticipates it will generate enough cash from operations to cover investments.

The company controls one of the largest silver mines in the world and expects to produce 20 million ounces of silver this year, nearly twice the expected output of competitor Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL). The Idaho mining company recently shocked a few investors when it completed a reverse stock split of 10-for-1, a move that brought its share price out of penny-stock territory.

While reverse splits often spell death for a company, many investors remain bullish, with 95% of the 1,222 CAPS members rating Coeur d'Alene Mines expecting it to outperform the broader market.

Ultimately, whether or not you believe a fall in any stock is warranted, your own research is more important than collective opinions. Smart investors use CAPS to help quickly focus due diligence and perhaps uncover pitfalls. 

Add your take on these or any of the 5,300 stocks that 135,000-plus members have covered in Motley Fool CAPS. It's totally free to be a part of the community, and the payback is more than worth it.

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The Motley Fool Global Gains analyst team has already singled out Melco Crown Entertainment as one of many great international investment opportunities. Check out all the international stocks the investing service is highlighting now, free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Dave Mock habitually looks for silver linings in even the darkest of clouds. He owns no shares of companies mentioned here. Melco Crown Entertainment is a Global Gains pick. The Fool's disclosure policy is made of sugar and spice and everything nice.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On June 18, 2009, at 5:35 PM, denaliguide wrote:

    With respect to CDE, we have seen them time after time snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, so I'd not be a holder of their stock under all but the most unusual of circumstances. Seems to me if you want to speculate on silver via paper you'd be bester off using SLV, SVM, MVG, even Minco Gold [ MGH ] which has a large holding of Minco Silver. Technically the stock can look good but usually fails to perform in timely manner.

    While it is not in a Financial Near Death Situation, I'm inclined to vote against them simply on principle.

    Occasionally I post ideas in my blog, but your free to read them whenver you like.

    http://denaliguidesummit.blogspot.com/

    In any case, good luck,

    DG

  • Report this Comment On June 19, 2009, at 11:13 AM, spokanimal wrote:

    Re: Melco's City of Dreams...

    Get ready for a pleasant surprise in 2H "09. Although visitation and VIP gaming was down double-digits in Macau during the first half of this year, Mass market gaming has actually increased modestly in spite of the economic slump and visa restrictions and will only accelerate as the economy recovers. Further, little new capacity will come on stream in Macau to sop it up this year and next.

    Remember that Cotai is both targeted toward and built for the mass market and will have commandeered 40% of it by this time next year. Also remember that gaming hold that averages 3% for VIP runs in excess of 12% for mass. Prior to City of Dreams, Venetian was like an island relative to the peninsula. City of Dreams and the new ferry terminal will markedly change that.

    Over the next 5 or 6 years, Cotai could do to the peninsula what the Vegas strip did to downtown Vegas 20 years ago... except much more quickly.

    Spok

  • Report this Comment On June 21, 2009, at 2:55 PM, TSIF wrote:

    Give me a break. CDE is up 3X off it's lows in a few short months. The recent pullback was expected.

    As for holding it, yes, go where your risk/reward best fits you. I've been holding it for 8 months and enjoying the ride.

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Related Tickers

11/10/2009 10:04 AM
HL $5.41 Down -0.07 -1.28%
Hecla Mining Compa… CAPS Rating: ***
CDE $21.89 Down -0.20 -0.91%
Coeur d'Alene Mine… CAPS Rating: ***
LVS $16.60 Down -0.19 -1.13%
Las Vegas Sands Co… CAPS Rating: **
MBI $4.01 Down -0.79 -16.46%
MBIA, Inc. CAPS Rating: *
ABK $1.05 Down -0.13 -11.02%
Ambac Financial Gr… CAPS Rating: *
JPM $44.19 Down -0.16 -0.36%
JPMorgan Chase & C… CAPS Rating: ***
MPEL $4.71 Down -0.22 -4.46%
Melco Crown Entert… CAPS Rating: ****

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