The Best Stock in Mexico

If you think the dollar is doomed, you aren't the only one.

My fellow Fool Tim Hanson, co-advisor for Motley Fool Global Gains has warned of the dollar's demise for months now. So has Warren Buffett. Fortunately, neither of these guys has abandoned all hope. Even if the greenback gets a nasty case of gangrene, you still have ways to survive -- and even profit.

Your best bet may be to invest in the stocks of foreign companies that denominate revenue and earnings in stable currencies. Tim and Global Gains co-advisor Nate Parmelee like Mexico's peso in particular, and for good reason. Our southern neighbor has a history of harvesting big winners that trade on American exchanges. Here's a look at the top five returners as identified by Capital IQ:

Company

Recent Price

CAPS Stars
(out of 5)

One-Year CAGR U.S. Return

Cemex (NYSE: CX  )

$13.23

*****

103.2%

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro (Nasdaq: OMAB  )

$13.43

****

80.3%

Fomento Economico Mexicano (NYSE: FMX  )

$44.47

****

83.7%

Homex Development (NYSE: HXM  )

$42.91

***

95.9%

Empresas ICA (NYSE: ICA  )

$10.71

**

122.2%

Sources: Capital IQ, Motley Fool CAPS, Yahoo! Finance. Data current as of Oct. 22.
CAGR = compound annual growth rate.

Why your portfolio should like Mexico
As much as China has been a frequent stop for Tim and Nate in their investing travels, they've also spent more than a little time south of the border. Mexico is home to one of the world's best investors -- billionaire Carlos Slim Helu -- and its government is taking steps to close regulatory loopholes and shore up the currency, which is still very low.

Proposed reforms are creating enthusiasm. A new, partially approved 2010 budget has helped lead a recovery in the peso, which is up 4.4% during October -- the best performance of any of the 26 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, the wire service reported yesterday.

Our 140,000-plus-member Motley Fool CAPS community also sees opportunity outside of the white sands of Mexico's seaside resorts. Fools give four of five stars to the average Mexican stock in CAPS, which tracks 25 issues trading on American exchanges. Wal-Mart de Mexico (OTC BB: WMMVY.PK) is their top overall pick. The details:

Metric

Wal-Mart de Mexico

Business Description

Mexico's version of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  ) is a retail powerhouse serving a population that desperately needs low-cost goods.

CAPS Stars (out of 5)

*****

Total Ratings

89

Percent Bulls

98.9%

Percent Bears

1.1%

Bullish Pitches

15 out of 15

CAPS Members Bullish on WMMVY.PK Also Bullish on

Cemex
Chesapeake Energy

Data current as of Oct. 22.

CAPS investors aren't the only ones who like Wal-Mart de Mexico. Nate recommended the stock to Global Gains subscribers in August 2007. The shares haven't moved much since.

But the underlying business is improving. Last week, Wal-Mart de Mexico reported a 12% sales increase and 17% gains in operating income and EBITDA. Per-share earnings rose a very healthy 19%. But is the stock worth 22 times earnings?

That depends on whether you think Mexico is a massive growth opportunity. Tim expressed cautious optimism when I spoke with him earlier today:

With a population of more than 100 million that is underpenetrated when it comes to things like banking and communications, Mexico is an attractive market. That said, the country has corruption and crime problems it needs to solve before it will become a top investor destination.

What do you think? Would you buy Wal-Mart de Mexico at today's prices? Let us know by signing up for CAPS today. It's 100% free to participate.

Each month, Tim and Nate spotlight promising international stocks in Global Gains. Try this market-beating service risk-free for 30 days and get access to all of their recommendations and special reports, including coverage of current recommendations Wal-Mart de Mexico, Fomento Economico, and Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte.

Cemex is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Chesapeake Energy and Wal-Mart Stores are Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations. Fomento Economico Mexicano and Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro are Motley Fool Global Gains selections. The Fool owns shares of Chesapeake Energy and Cemex.

Fool contributor Tim Beyers didn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article at the time of publication. Check out Tim's portfolio holdings and Foolish writings, or connect with him on Twitter as @milehighfool. The Motley Fool is also on Twitter as @TheMotleyFool. Its disclosure policy is an unapologetic globetrotter.


Read/Post Comments (1) | Recommend This Article (6)

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  • Report this Comment On April 06, 2011, at 2:25 PM, plinius wrote:

    Wal Mart de Mexico is a huge business opportunity, since 2009 it's sales have been slammed but as the economy recovery drips down you will begin to see some impressive results. Add to that that they've setup shop with minorist retailer Aurrera which has chopped off some big numbers of major competitors like Comercial mexicana, Soriana, Carreufor, etc. They have begin a large expansion in the north of the country setting up a dozen or so new stores in 2010, under Aurrera brand name.

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