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Get Out Now!

I've successfully scared the heck out of some of you with predictions of the dollar's looming demise.

Yet I've not said it nearly as forcefully as Swiss banker Konrad Hummler. Here's what he wrote in a recent commentary: "It's time to take advantage of the recovery of the U.S. dollar to get one's currency diversification in order."

Read between the lines. He's telling you the dollar is going down ... hard.

But don't just take my -- or Hummler's -- word for it
We're not the only ones giving such advice. If you've been paying attention, then you know that Warren Buffett came out against the dollar in a New York Times editorial in August.

And Hummler, in his commentary, points out two other investing luminaries who have taken high-profile stands against the dollar:

  • "Bill Gross of Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), which manages the biggest bond fund in the world, advises investors to sell dollar investments 'before the central banks and sovereign wealth funds do.' "
  • "[C]ommodities specialist Jim Rogers ... announces his new favorite currency -- the Chinese yuan."

Now, you can heed these words of warning, or you can stick to your U.S. investing guns. But allow me to suggest that the latter is an irrational position.

After all, there's limited downside to diversifying into great companies that do business outside of the United States. There is, however, significant downside to investing in nothing but dollar-denominated investments.

It'd be crazy to stash your entire life's savings in one company. It's just as crazy to stash your entire life's savings in one currency.

But there's opportunity in the meantime
Despite the dollar's precarious, debt-laden position, the currency is in a pretty good place relative to other world currencies -- thanks to investors having abandoned emerging markets for perceived financial safe havens during the recent financial crisis.

In other words, should you opt to sell some of your dollar-denominated investments (like U.S. stocks) and buy investments that are denominated in Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, South African rand, and so on and so forth (like foreign stocks), you have stronger purchasing power today than you'll likely have in six or 12 months.

Basically, this is a temporary opportunity. But there's still time to take advantage.

Have a look at this table
To make this simple, I've put together a quick chart of popular U.S. investments and some foreign counterparts that would offer similar investment cases with significantly more foreign currency exposure.

If You Own ...

You Should Look at ...

Buckle (NYSE: BKE  ) or Zumiez (Nasdaq: ZUMZ  )

Fast Retailing

Columbia Sportswear (Nasdaq: COLM  )

Li Ning

Merck (NYSE: MRK  )

Dr. Reddy's (NYSE: RDY  )

These are all solid companies with somewhat similar profiles -- because what makes a good company outside of the United States isn't at all different from what makes a good company inside the United States.

Buckle and Japan's Fast Retailing, for example, both sell well-known brands, have fashion appeal, and are well-run companies. So, again, don't change your approach when you go searching for stocks abroad -- simply change your purview.

At the end of the day, however, the most important point is that the stocks on the right will make sure that your life's savings aren't 100% aligned with the health of the dollar. Konrad Hummler, Warren Buffett, Bill Gross, Jim Rogers, and I all think that's a very smart move.

Sufficiently freaked out?
If you're worried about the dollar, and you want more compelling international investment opportunities, click here to join us at Global Gains with a free 30-day guest membership. You'll enjoy access to all of our premium research and stock picks with no obligation to subscribe.

This article was first published Sept. 17, 2009. It has been updated.

Tim Hanson is co-advisor of Motley Fool Global Gains. He does not own shares of any company mentioned. Fast Retailing is a Global Gains recommendation. Enter the Fool's disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 15, 2010, at 7:24 PM, TideGoesOut wrote:

    The one concern I have is that the ADRs don't always track the original stock very well. For example, TTM continues to have a substantial difference from BOM:500570 that doesn't appear to match currency differences between INR and USD.

    As far as I can tell, no one is out there explaining the difference, perhaps some Fool can?

  • Report this Comment On January 16, 2010, at 3:33 PM, TLassen wrote:

    Correct me if I am wrong but I believe Mr Hummler actually expressed the following in his speech.:

    "Wegelin & Co., Switzerland’s oldest bank, is telling wealthy clients to sell their U.S. assets, or switch banks, because of concerns new rules will saddle investors with tax obligations in the world’s biggest economy. U.S. proposals to extend reporting requirements for banks whose clients buy American stocks and bonds coupled with estate tax liabilities that may be inherited by the heirs of people who have such holdings prompted the advice from the St. Gallen, Switzerland-based bank, said Managing Partner Konrad Hummler"

    Your statement :"Read between the lines. He's telling you the dollar is going down ... hard" is completely misguided

    in regards to 'getting out of the dollar" (that's all relative to where you live) As a Canadian resident it is in my interest to buy the US dollar now in anticipation of an USD recovery. Most of my new US equity purchases will be hedged. As the US economy improves (and it will, never bet against the US!) it will mean an increase in the USD relative to our currency and provide maybe as much 10-20 % hedge in my equity values.

    and BTW Mr.Hummler expressed his views back in October 2009

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