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Is Focus Media the Perfect Stock?

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Everyone would love to find the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that gives you everything you could possibly want?

One thing's for sure: If you don't look, you'll never find truly great investments. So let's first take a look at what you'd want to see from a perfect stock, and then decide if Focus Media Holding (Nasdaq: FMCN  ) fits the bill.

The quest for perfection
When you're looking for great stocks, you have to do your due diligence. It's not enough to rely on a single measure, because a stock that looks great based on one factor may turn out to be horrible in other ways. The best stocks, however, excel in many different areas, which all come together to make up a very attractive picture.

Some of the most basic yet important things to look for in a stock are:

  • Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
  • Margins. Higher sales don't mean anything if a company can't turn them into profits. Strong margins ensure a company is able to turn revenue into profit.
  • Balance sheet. Debt-laden companies have banks and bondholders competing with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
  • Money-making opportunities. Companies need to be able to turn their resources into profitable business opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding those opportunities.
  • Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. Earnings multiples are simple, but using normalized figures gives you a sense of how valuation fits into a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. Investors are demanding tangible proof of profits, and there's nothing more tangible than getting a check every three months. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Focus Media.

Factor

What We Want to See

Actual

Pass or Fail?

Growth 5-Year Annual Revenue Growth > 15% 49.9% Pass
  1-Year Revenue Growth > 12% 2.2% Fail
Margins Gross Margin > 35% 57.1% Pass
  Net Margin > 15% 35.7% Pass
Balance Sheet Debt to Equity < 50% 0% Pass
  Current Ratio > 1.3 4.94 Pass
Opportunities Return on Equity > 15% 8.6% Fail
Valuation Normalized P/E < 20 69.55 Fail
Dividends Current Yield > 2% 0% Fail
  5-Year Dividend Growth > 10% 0% Fail
       
  Total Score   5 out of 10

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard and Poor's. Total score = number of passes.

Focus Media hits the middle of our scale with a score of 5, but the Chinese media company has benefited more from the boom in the world's biggest emerging market than that score suggests.

Focus Media is a Chinese advertising powerhouse, using a variety of methods to reach Chinese consumers. At the end of last year, the company had 213,000 LCD displays and 336,000 posters and digital frames in elevators in 184 cities, and also uses electronic billboards and Internet advertising to deliver its ads.

Lately, that model has been strong for Focus Media. In its most recent quarter, the company delivered 45% higher revenue and a 71% jump in profits.

Still, the company faces plenty of competition in just about every venue imaginable. AirMedia (Nasdaq: AMCN  ) , which focuses on airports for its advertising, has also performed well. China MediaExpress (Nasdaq: CCME  ) and VisionChina Media (Nasdaq: VISN  ) have LCD advertisements on buses and trains. Of those, China MediaExpress compares most favorably to Focus Media on a financial basis , but China MediaExpress has faced controversy about whether its results are legitimate.

In the end, China is more than big enough to sustain multiple companies in the industry. But for now, Focus Media seems to have the inside edge, suggesting that it could be the best poised to move toward perfection in the years to come.

Keep searching
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.

Click here to add Focus Media to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

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Finding the perfect stock is only one piece of a successful investment strategy. Get the big picture by taking a look at our 13 Steps to Investing Foolishly.

Fool contributor Dan Caplinger doesn't own shares of the companies mentioned in this article. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2011, at 12:02 PM, Value1008 wrote:

    With the issuing of its bi-yearly dividend this year, China MediaExpress actually will rate "PASS" on 9 out of your 10 criteria (the only one N.A. is the 5-year growth of the dividend).

    You write: "China MediaExpress compares most favorably to Focus Media on a financial basis , but China MediaExpress has faced controversy about whether its results are legitimate."

    That is an INVENTED controversy by bashing shortseller bloggers who've yet to come up with a single allegation that can hold any water. The extensive disclaimers at the bloggers' own sites utterly DE-LEGITIMIZE themselves and make invalid all their criticisms.

    Meanwhile, top auditor Deloitte signed off on last year's 10-K, has been reviewing qrtrly results throughout 2010, and is just about to sign off on the latest 10-K (they would have resigned in Dec. had the $170M+ in cash [through 3 quarters] not really been there).

    Ping Luo, independent analyst for Global Hunter (not paid a dime by CCME), came out on Feb 17, 2011 with a remarkably thorough update research note 100% confirming the extensive cash, client and bus-operator contracts that she examined, completely rebutting the manipulative short-bloggers' charges.

    Bottom line: if you love FMCN, you'll really love CCME. They also appear to have just signed on with Fleishman-Hillard, the #2 P.R. firm in the world, though the announcement has not been formally made.

  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2011, at 12:08 PM, poeticJ wrote:

    The PE is 69? How can valuation only account for 10% of your scoring system? Do you remember the Internet days? A lot of great companies that still exist today dropped 75% because of VALUATION!!

    Do you understand valuation is the most important factor in a stock?

    Even if it passed all 9 other criteria, it would be a TERRIBLE buy.

    Given its growth potential (like many Chinese stocks), I can understand a PE of 20 or 25 but 69?

    It may be a very good company but if it trades on its fair value, it could drop 70% tomorrow because it is so f*-ing expensive... and take a decade to come back.

  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2011, at 12:12 PM, poeticJ wrote:

    What makes absolutely no sense is that CCME trades at a forward PE of 4 (w/ just as much growth potential and a cleaner balance sheet) and the PE of this one is 69? I can understand a temporary 10% premium or even a 25% premium until CCME passes its audit but an 1800% valuation premium?

    I never seen a time in the markets where there is so much mispricing on both the high and low side.

  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2011, at 1:28 PM, Medicalrecordman wrote:

    FMCN's P/E is NOT 69 folks. Their trailing P/E after earnings is 23.9 at the current PPS of $28.95, with EPS of $1.21 for 2010. Their earnings CC ? It was by far the best CC I've ever listened to. That said, I wouldn't be a buyer right here of FMCN, as CCME is far far more attractive, especially with an artificial PPS due to short-sellers that are trapped.

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