Is Google a Red Menace?

Wall Street's all abuzz over a Russian IPO. This morning, Russian Internet portal Yandex (Nasdaq: YNDX  ) took its place on the Nasdaq. Bankers Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS  ) , Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB  ) , and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) are preparing to book massive profits from underwriting the "biggest technology IPO of the year." The profits could further increase as Yandex pops 38%.

But is all this excitement for naught?

I'm sure this IPO is good news for the bankers, and Goldman's doubly sure. It  recently doubled down on Russia, investing "more than $1 billion" in Mail.ru Group and Tinkoff Credit Systems. But the biggest beneficiary of Russian Internet growth could be Silicon Valley's Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) .

According to a recent report commissioned by Google, Russia's Internet economy is set for a multiyear, 30% annual growth boom as it surges from a reported 1.6% share of the Russian economy to as much as 3.7% by 2015. The Internet advertising in which Google and Yandex specialize has been one of the zippiest segments of the market, posting 59% annual growth from 2005 through 2009. Yet even today, Russian companies spend barely 12% of their ad dollars online, versus online's 18% share of the ad market in the U.S., and 25% in Britain.

Google "Napoleon"

Google bears will doubtless point to the example of its inglorious defeat by Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU  ) in China. They'll argue that a similar fate awaits Google as it tackles Yandex and its commanding share of the Russian search market. But according to MT, Russia's having a hard time getting innovation fired up in its version of Silicon Valley, the Skolkovo district of Moscow.

If Russia truly wants to grow its Internet economy, and state-sponsorship projects like Skolkovo don't do the trick, then it'll have to import innovation from abroad. Google can help with that. That's why I think it has a future in Russia still -- Yandex or no Yandex.

Who will win this contest -- foreign Google, or hometown hero Yandex? Add both stocks to your Fool Watchlist, and watch the battle play out.