Retail Sales' Rise a Surprise?

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What a difference a week makes. You may remember that the headlines were screaming doom after Wal-Mart's (NYSE: WMT) ham-fisted attempts to scare up sales over Thanksgiving weekend soured the firm's November. You may also remember that some of us -- OK, I -- pilloried the hand-wringers shortly thereafter, trying to point out that one company's failure doesn't make a trend. I would also like to have pointed out -- though I didn't have the space -- that the much-referenced International Council of Shopping Center's comps report is so heavily dependent on Wal-Mart that it's not such a great proxy for the retail world as a whole.

In fact, the Commerce Department's recent numbers indicate that retail spending actually rose in November, and it rose even more quickly than analysts had predicted. When you strip out the gruesome results from automakers (Motto: Take a car, they're free!), spending rose by 0.5%. Moreover, the gains in October were revised upward.

That, and a buck, will almost get you a cup of caffeine at Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX). As much as I'd like to issue a colossal "I told you so," I'll refrain, for a couple of reasons. First off, anyone in the business of making predictions -- or pooh-poohing the predictions of others -- is going to be wrong, so if I don't gloat now, maybe I won't have to eat so much crow when my time comes. Next, these numbers are entirely different from the data that November's worriers were using to predict doom. And finally, they may in fact be revised downward next month.

The real lesson for Foolish investors is -- as always -- don't pay too much attention to the popular wisdom. It's rarely wise, rarely timely, and it just doesn't matter. Even amid the flattish overall retail environment, there have been solid performers across the board, including Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Target (NYSE: TGT), American Eagle Outfitters (Nasdaq: AEOS), and Tiffany (NYSE: TIF). Being Foolish means seeking out the businesses that thrive in good times and bad.

For related Foolishness:

• Don't sweat the headlines. They're concocted by bobbleheads and the beast.
• Is Santa really skipping Wal-Mart?
• My Foolish colleague Salim Haji worries -- with good reason -- about overextended consumers.

The Fool's stable of market-beating newsletters can put you in touch with scores of thriving businesses and teach you how to look for your own. A trial is always gratis.

Seth Jayson used to avoid investing in retail but was drawn to the dark side. At the time of publication, he had no positions in any company mentioned. View his stock holdings and Fool profile here. Fool rules are here.