The Best Small Companies ... Exposed

It's hardly breaking news at this point, but it bears repeating: Small-cap stocks are your best bet for superior returns. After all, small-cap stocks have trounced their larger brethren over the past 80 years -- and over the past three decades, the competition hasn't even been close:

Annualized Return

Small Caps

Large Caps

1926 to 2006



1976 to 2006



Data from Ibbotson Associates.

Meanwhile, a recent study by Jeff Anderson and Gary Smith from Pomona College shows that America's most admired companies also have a tendency to beat the market. Anderson and Smith analyzed the returns of Fortune's list of the 10 most admired companies from 1983 to 2004. They found that a portfolio of these stocks outperformed the S&P 500 by "a substantial and statistically significant margin."

By the power of the transitive property
So it stands to reason that if:

A. Investing in small-cap stocks generates market-beating returns; and
B. Investing in the market's best companies generates market-beating returns; then
C. Investing in the market's best small-cap companies should generate market-annihilating returns.

If only there was a list of the best small-cap companies ...
Fortunately, the folks over at Forbes magazine compile an annual list of the best 200 small companies in America. According to Forbes, companies "must pass through a gauntlet to qualify for the list," so you know you're getting the cream of the crop.

To make Forbes' list, a company must have revenue between $5 million and $750 million and a share price higher than $5, and must also clear certain thresholds for returns on equity, sales, and income.

That's some list
As you might expect, Forbes' list boasts some impressive names and more than a few familiar faces. The list successfully identified small-cap stalwarts like Chico's (NYSE: CHS  ) , Cognizant Technology (Nasdaq: CTSH  ) , and Hansen Natural (Nasdaq: HANS  ) long before these companies were household names.

Forbes was also early to the party on success stories like Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR  ) , Oceaneering International (NYSE: OII  ) , and Corporate Executive Board (Nasdaq: EXBD  ) . Take a look at the returns:


First Appeared on the Forbes List

Return Since First Appearance*


Oct. 1, 1999


Cognizant Technology

Oct. 1, 1999


Corporate Executive Board

Sept. 26, 2002


Green Mountain Coffee Roasters

Oct. 1, 2000


Hansen Natural

Oct. 1, 2000


Oceaneering International

Sept. 26, 2002


*Returns through Dec. 11.

But you can only look backwards through a screen
Forbes' list does an excellent job of identifying the hottest small-cap companies -- at the moment the list is released. After all, the data Forbes is taking into account is primarily backward-looking.

Clearly, some of these companies continue to excel long after they're featured in the magazine. But for every Hansen Natural, there's a company like Jakks Pacific (Nasdaq: JAKK  ) , which was listed at No. 8 on Forbes' 1999 list.

On the strength of licensing revenue from the Pokemon craze, Jakks Pacific was one of the hottest stocks of that era that didn't end with a dot-com suffix. However, when the pace of Pokemon-related revenue slowed (and while it's easy to call it a fad in hindsight, who truly saw that coming?), the Jakks share price took a nosedive. The stock has rebounded nicely from its 2000 lows, but it's still underwater for anyone who bought in when it first appeared on Forbes' list.

I won't bore you with Forbes' other big misses, but suffice it to say, there have been more than a few. In fact, four of Forbes' top seven stocks last year are already down more than 40%!

Don't send a screen to do a man's job
A stock screen is a great tool for identifying prospective investment opportunities, but it's no substitute for good old-fashioned due diligence. In their Motley Fool Hidden Gems service, Tom Gardner and Bill Mann advise investors against searching for winning small-cap investment ideas by seeking out the hottest companies of the past 12 months. Instead, Tom and Bill focus on companies with:

  • Solid free cash flow;
  • Strong balance sheets;
  • High insider ownership; and
  • Market-beating potential over the next three to five years.

Furthermore, Tom and Bill prefer small companies that are obscured from Wall Street and ignored by the financial media. It's far more profitable to unearth quality companies before they become household names than after they grace the cover of a magazine.

You can look at all of Tom and Bill's recommendations by clicking here to try Hidden Gems free for 30 days. They may not have 200 companies on their roster, but they are beating the market by 28 percentage points over the last four and a half years.

Rich Greifner is happy he made Bill Mann's list of 200 favorite Fools. Rich does not own any of the companies mentioned in this article. Corporate Executive Board is a Stock Advisor recommendation. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (27)

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  • Report this Comment On December 14, 2007, at 2:38 PM, vdinesh18 wrote:

    Crammer did a completly wrong analysis yesterday. Cognizant is not listed on Indian Stock Exchange, it is only listed on American Exchanges and he says that he can see signs of overheating and danger written all over. Just because he can write doesn't mean he should write some useless stuff. Please rectify your analysis crammer.

  • Report this Comment On December 22, 2007, at 2:04 PM, takisg wrote:

    in the last six months I have found mostly advertising for your deferent products to be purchased from you (such as hiden gems milllion dollar portfolio etc. etc.) than actual buy or sell recomdantions.

    this makes verry it verry defecult for me to extend my subscribtion with you.

    I hope to hear from you if you find my conclutions wrong, and point out my mistakes or my misgivings.

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