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These Stocks Will Burn You

By Rex Moore May 17, 2008 Comments (2)

9 Recommendations

In his article "The Market's 10 Best Stocks," my colleague Tim Hanson pointed out the benefits of searching for the next multibagger success stories among the smallest of companies.

And I agree with him: The best stocks of the next decade will not be huge companies. Why not? This chart should explain why. Look how large each of these solid businesses would become if they increased 10 times in value over the next decade:

Company

Market Cap (Billions)

10-Bagger Market Cap (Trillions)

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)

$191

$1.9

American International Group (NYSE: AIG)

$99

$1.0

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM)

$158

$1.6

Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

$203

$2.0

Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC)

$97

$1.0

PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP)

$108

$1.1

Verizon

$110

$1.1

While it's certainly possible, we probably won't have a trillion-dollar company by 2018 -- much less see any of these large caps turn into 20- or 30-baggers. So we can count the giants in that chart out of the running for best performer of the next decade.

Instead, the greatest chance for the greatest gains comes from the smallest of companies, like the Tiny Gems followed by the Motley Fool Hidden Gems team. These half-pints are capitalized at less than $200 million, and there's plenty of room for them to grow before they run into the headwinds of large numbers and their prospects become more limited.

But before you take a free trial and jump headfirst into the micro-cap waters, listen up: This ride is not for everybody.

Buckle up
With great potential reward comes great risk. Just as a tiny company has the greatest chance at outlandish gains, it also has a better chance of going belly-up -- bankrupt. Gone ... along with your money. And the volatility along the way to greatness or the graveyard may give you whiplash.

Thus, these Tiny Gems are best suited for risk-tolerant investors with a long-term outlook.

That said, two things can greatly reduce the chance that your portfolio will get torched by tanking Tinies:

  1. Believe the balance sheet. This is where you can tell whether a company is in danger. Little cash and large amounts of debt are a big warning sign, especially for businesses not yet turning a profit. Go back through the last several balance sheets. Is the company burning through cash? How fast? My advice: Stick to profitable companies with cash-to-debt ratios of at least 1.5.
  2. Buy a "basket" of these micro caps. In other words, allocate the amount of funds you normally would for one stock to several of the Tinies: four or five, for example. That way, you're giving yourself more of a chance of finding at least one huge gainer -- more than making up for one or two of the others losing most of their value.

Are you still ready to forge onward to Tinyland? Good. Click here for a free trial to Hidden Gems. The newsletter's official small-cap recommendations (which are larger than Tiny Gems) have returned an average of 39% since inception, versus 14% for identical amounts invested in the S&P 500.

This article was originally published on Jan. 30, 2006. It has been updated.

Rex Moore is a Stock Advisor analyst. Rex owns shares of Johnson & Johnson. Johnson & Johnson and JPMorgan are Income Investor recommendations. The Motley Fool is investors helping investors.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • On May 17, 2008, at 4:38 PM, thebigbeaty wrote: Report this Comment

    This guy is a idiot. Wells fargo and Pepsi will go up twenty per cent before the end of may. Warren Buffet or this idiot who does not even list his background in stocks. Buffet bought seven per cent of Well Fargo in the last week and will buy the whole company before the end of the month. He is just trying to get you to buy the hidden gems list.(sic)

  • On May 18, 2008, at 1:37 PM, ters22 wrote: Report this Comment

    These stocks are up and down all the time for few pennies.

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