A 1-in-100 Investor

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Presidents are often measured by what they achieve during their first 100 days in office. Schools have parties for students on the 100th day of the school year. Newly appointed executives are often expected to affect substantial change, if not realize greater shareholder value, within their first 100 days.

At Motley Fool CAPS, we keep an eye on the 100-day mark, too. Some of our best investors -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved top player ratings after garnering a score of 100 in their first 100 days on CAPS. Analysis has shown that the top-rated stocks have had the best performance over CAPS’ first year, so might we assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there is a correlation as well?

One of our highest-rated CAPS investors is nicvo, who sports a near-perfect 99.99 player rating. A player since August 2006, nicvo currently has 196 active picks on CAPS out of more than 1,050 stock picks made. Achieving 83% accuracy, nicvo has also attracted 449 "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top player's most recent stock selections, and how they were rated:

Stock	CAPS Rating (out of 5)	Call	Price*	Current Score
American Oriental Bioengineering (NYSE: AOB)	****	Underperform	$10.25	0.61
AMR	*	Underperform	$4.85	0.08
Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD)	**	Underperform	$11.50	(0.14)
Elixir Gaming Technologies (AMEX: EGT)	**	Underperform	$1.68	27.19
EMCORE (Nasdaq: EMKR)	**	Underperform	$5.18	(7.30)
Raser Technologies	*	Outperform	$8.51	17.86
ReneSola (NYSE: SOL)	*****	Outperform	$20.86	(25.50)
Sulphco (AMEX: SUF)	*	Underperform	$2.68	13.00
Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP)	*****	Outperform	$41.61	(14.17)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. Current score is the number of points by which a player is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.
*Price when call was made.

A hot debate
The solar energy side of EMCORE's business has been getting a lot of attention these days, if for no other reason than the current popularity of alternative energy plays. Yet that segment only makes up one-third of revenue for this compound semiconductor components maker. The vast bulk of its revenue comes instead from fiber optics. However, a dispute between competing analysts has seen Emcore's stock plummet, and then bounce, as the meaning of a contract for solar components is sorted out.

One analyst says the company's touted 70 megawatts of installed solar farms is overstated; the other says the first analyst misunderstands how the output of those farms is measured. Emcore's stock, in the meantime, tumbled as much as 36% after the first report but has recovered 21% off its lows.

There are definitely competing visions on CAPS as well. All-Star players are nearly evenly divided over the company’s potential, with 47% of them beleiving that EMCORE will underperform the market going forward. But some, like twinterm1, are enthusiastic that EMCORE can help the U.S. make the transition away from oil:

A small cap solar play that will take off as our country makes the transition from oil to alternative energy such as solar, wind, natural gas, and coal. The stock has reached bottom and can only go as high as the sun. Great time to buy now.

Transcendental meditation
Far more sedate is the debate over American Oriental Bioengineering, which, despite the curious name, is a manufacturer of branded traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in China. Subscribers to Motley Fool Hidden Gems, where the company is a recommendation, have been watching American Oriental’s skyrocketing ability to transform its pharmaceutical and nutriceutical products into household names. In its most recent quarter, the company had a 46% jump in profits, rendering the stock A-OK with many investors -- 92% of the All-Star investors on CAPS rating it judge it will beat the market.

As top-notch player tuffsledding notes, the burgeoning Chinese economy is spreading newfound wealth among its citizens, which could place American Oriental on a steep growth trajectory:

Expect volatility, but if Chinese pharmaceutical usage begins to rise from its current very low level (compared to western countries), this company will reap huge benefits. With the growth of Chinese economy, rapid increase in disposable income and the desire to adopt western ways, this could be a rocket (or a dud, if the naysayers are correct). Not for the faint of heart, but a worthwhile gamble here in CAPS.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest players in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have made their mark, but we haven't yet heard from you. As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. And since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?