1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Alexander's?

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 140,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, property manager Alexander's (NYSE: ALX  ) has received the dreaded one-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Alexander's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Alexander's facts

Headquarters (Founded)

Paramus, N.J. (1955)

Market Cap

$1.51 billion

Industry

Property management

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$215.8 million

Management

CEO Steven Roth (since 2005)
CFO Joseph Macnow (since 2002)

Revenue and Net Income Growth (Over Past Year)

3.8% and (29.6%)

6-Month Return

78.1%

Highly Rated Property Management Alternatives

Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL  )
Winthrop Realty Trust (NYSE: FUR  )

CAPS Members Bearish on ALX Also Bearish on

AIG (NYSE: AIG  )
Palm (Nasdaq: PALM  )

CAPS Members Bullish on ALX Also Bullish on

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  )
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  )

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 69% of the 71 members who have rated Alexander's believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include All-Stars tcuwhit and JakilaTheHun, both of whom are ranked in the top 20% of our community.
A few months ago, tcuwhit warned Fools of Alexander's Big Apple exposure:

[Alexander's] owns property in NYC. The entire landscape of the city will change since thousands upon thousands of high paying jobs have completely vanished b/c of the recession … That coupled with a company that has a 7 to 1 leverage ratio … makes me think that this stalk is way over valued.

In a pitch from last month, JakilaTheHun expands on why Alexander's isn't so great. Here's an excerpt:

(1) They are completely concentrated in NYC, where property values are still at exorbitant levels and could still stand quite a drop …

(4) I'm bullish on some quality REITs because they have reasonable leverage, quality properties, and/or strong cash flows, all the while, the market seems to be assuming monumental drops in cash flows and net asset values. However, [Alexander's] seems to be priced more aggressively. I'm still bearish on commercial RE; I've only been bullish on REITs because the prices already assumed astronomical deterioration in the fundamentals and I thought the market went overboard. [Alexander's] price does not carry these highly pessimistic assumptions.

The upside to [Alexander's] is they generally pay good dividends and they have a very strong tenant base. But I'm still rather baffled by their valuation. I think it is propped up by the high dividend and if that were to disappear -- watch out!

What do you think about Alexander's, or any other stock for that matter? Make your voice heard on Motley Fool CAPS today. The CAPS community is waiting to hear your opinions. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Jones Lang LaSalle is a Motley Fool Hidden Gems pick, and Johnson & Johnson is a choice of Income Investor. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.


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