Short-sellers and hedge funds may be shadowy, but sometimes they're the smartest investors in the room. They've done their homework and are willing to bet their capital against the crowd -- an investing strategy that can be as lucrative as it is contrarian.
On Motley Fool CAPS, we've got our own leading analysts who find the chinks in a company's armor and correctly call its fall. Our "Underdogs" have earned 100 or more CAPS points by correctly predicting that one or more stocks would underperform the market.
Let's look at some of the recent calls these All-Star investors have made. But instead of studying more of their pessimistic picks, we'll focus on the stocks these top members expect will outperform the market. If these CAPS investors have scored big by correctly predicting which stocks will fall, it may be worth our while to see which they think will succeed.
Not every short sale goes as planned, making shorting a risky proposition. Stock prices can be irrational longer than you have money to stay in the game. So don't use this as a list of stocks to sell or buy -- just the launching pad for further research.
Underdogs still wag their tails
The valuation of Allied Irish Banks may look cheap when compared to Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), but many banks in the U.S. have already gotten their bailout, unloaded their bad assets on the taxpayers, and gamed the system so that they always win (yes, I'm looking at you Goldman Sachs). The situation's not so clear for Ireland's leading banks.
Ireland's proposed National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) has been slow in coming to fruition and won't be established until the middle of the month at the earliest. NAMA will undertake the cleanup of Ireland's banks by sweeping toxic assets into a "bad bank." Foisting bad loans onto Irish taxpayers won't happen until at least the end of the year, but already Bank of Ireland is saying the agency probably won't do enough to keep it from seeking another government bailout.
Investors remain hopeful, though, believing, as CAPS member cmolinel does, that handing off its bad assets will allow the market to appreciate the discount that Allied Irish Banks' stock is trading at. "Waiting for the government rescue, which is delayed (that is why the price drop) but price at 20% of book value, looks too little."
Scratchin' at fleas
Talk about taking the wind out of your sails. In 2007, Zoltek was unable to meet the needs of wind turbine companies looking to purchase its carbon fibers, because it didn't have the production capacity. So it rapidly expanded and doubled its capacity by adding production lines in Mexico and Hungary -- just in time for financing for wind farms to disappear.
Although its carbon fibers are used in aerospace applications currently, and the company is investigating their use in automobiles and deep-sea drilling applications, wind has been what's wafted Zoltek higher. Vestas Wind Systems, for example, accounted for 40% of Zoltek's revenue last year. Zoltek is still looking to hit $500 million in sales, only it's going to take longer than 2012, which the company had once predicted.
CAPS member danovtroy thinks Zoltek's carbon fiber business is diversified across enough industries that it will grow from here:
Commercial carbon fiber allows incomparable strength and stiffness at low, sustainable costs. Wind, infrastructure, auto, secondary aerospace, friction, and medical are just the tip of the iceberg of industries that benefit from Zoltek carbon fibers. Lifecycle costs are the golden egg of mechanical efficiency and low cost commercial carbon fibers deliver.
There's no need to fear ...
Underdogs often shine brightest with their backs against the wall. Still, it takes more than a few All-Star picks and a quick paragraph to make buy or sell decisions. Start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS, where your opinion can still save the day. While there, you can read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made, all from a stock's CAPS page.
Like this article? Get our best articles delivered direct to your inbox at no cost. Sign up for Foolwatch Weekly by entering your email below.
Terms & Conditions
RSS Headlines
Fool UK