Should You Sell Dynamic Materials Right Now?

Should you sell Dynamic Materials (Nasdaq: BOOM  ) today?

The decision to sell a stock you've researched and followed for months or years is never easy. But if you fall in love with your stock holdings, you risk becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias -- listening only to information that supports your theories, and rejecting any contradictions.

In 2004, longtime Fool Bill Mann called confirmation bias one of the most dangerous components of investing. This warning has helped my own investing throughout the Great Recession. Now I want to help you identify potential sell signs on popular stocks within our 4-million-strong Fool.com community.

Today I'm laser-focused on Dynamic Materials, ready to evaluate its price, valuation, margins, and liquidity. Let's get started!

Don't sell on price
Over the past 12 months, Dynamic Materials is down 18.5% versus an S&P 500 return of 11.3%. Investors are no doubt disappointed with their returns, but is now the time to cut and run? Not necessarily. Short-term underperformance alone is not a sell sign. The market may be missing the critical element of your investing thesis. For historical context, let's compare Dynamic Materials' recent price with its 52-week and five-year highs. I've also included a few other businesses in the same industry or a related one.

Company	Recent Price	52-Week High	5-Year High
Dynamic Materials	$15.14	$22.40	$66.30
GrafTech International (NYSE: GTI  )	$15.63	$17.78	$28.00
Carpenter Technology (NYSE: CRS  )	$33.71	$43.24	$79.70
Brush Engineered Materials (NYSE: BW  )	$28.44	$30.33	$61.80

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

As you can see, Dynamic Materials is down from its 52-week high. If you bought near the peak, now's the time to think back to why you bought it in the first place. If your reasons still hold true, you shouldn't sell based on this information alone.

Potential sell signs
First up, we'll get a rough idea of Dynamic Materials' valuation. I'm comparing Dynamic Materials' recent P/E ratio of 40.9 with where it's been over the past five years. 

 

Dynamic Materials' P/E is higher than its five-year average, a possible indication that the stock is overvalued. A high P/E isn't always a bad sign, since the company's growth prospects may also be increasing alongside the market's valuation. However, it definitely indicates that, on a purely historical basis, Dynamic Materials looks expensive.

Now let's look at the gross-margin trend, which represents the amount of profit a company makes for each $1 in sales, after deducting all costs directly related to that sale. A deteriorating gross margin over time can indicate that competition has forced the company to lower prices, that it can't control costs, or that its whole industry's facing tough times. Here's Dynamic Materials' gross margin over the past five years.

Dynamic Materials is clearly having issues maintaining its gross margin, which tends to dictate a company's overall profitability. Investors need to keep an eye on this troubling trend over the coming quarters.

Next, let's explore what other investors think about Dynamic Materials. We love the contrarian view here at Fool.com, but we don't mind cheating off our neighbors every once in a while. For this portion of our research, we'll examine two metrics: Motley Fool CAPS ratings and short interest. The former tells us how Fool.com's 170,000-strong community of individual analysts rates the stock, and the latter shows what proportion of investors is betting that the stock will fall. I'm including other peer companies once again for context.

Company	CAPS Rating (out of 5)	Short Interest (% of Float)
Dynamic Materials	5	5.0
GrafTech International	5	5.3
Carpenter Technology	5	1.5
Brush Engineered Materials	3	6.3

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

The Fool community is rather bullish on Dynamic Materials. We typically like to see our stocks rated at four or five stars. Anything below that level is a less-than-bullish indicator. I highly recommend you visit Dynamic Materials' stock-pitch page to see the verbatim reasons behind the ratings.

Here, short interest is at a mere 5.0%. A number like this typically indicates that few large institutional investors are betting against the stock.

Now let's study Dynamic Materials' debt situation, with a little help from the debt-to-equity ratio. This metric tells us how much debt the company's taken on, relative to its overall capital structure.

Dynamic Materials has been taking on some additional debt over the past five years. With total equity increasing over the same time period, debt-to-equity has consequently increased, as the above chart shows. Based on the trend alone, that's a bad sign. I consider a debt-to-equity ratio below 50% to be healthy, though the number can vary by industry.  Dynamic Materials is currently below this level, at 28.9%.

The last metric I like to look at is the current ratio, which lets investors judge a company's short-term liquidity. If Dynamic Materials had to convert its current assets to cash in one year, how many times over could it cover its liabilities? As of the last filing, Dynamic Materials has a current ratio of 1.89. That's a healthy sign. I like to see companies with current ratios greater than 1.5.

Finally, it's highly beneficial to determine whether Dynamic Materials belongs in your portfolio -- and to know how many similar businesses already occupy your stable of investments. If you haven't already, be sure to put your tickers into Fool.com's free portfolio tracker, My Watchlist. You can get started right away by adding Dynamic Materials.

The final recap

Dynamic Materials has failed three of the quick tests that would make it a sell. Does that mean you should sell your Dynamic Materials shares today? Not necessarily, but keep your eye on these trends over the coming quarters.

Remember to add Dynamic Materials to My Watchlist to help you keep track of all our coverage of the company on Fool.com.

If you haven't had a chance yet, be sure to read this article detailing how I missed out on more than $100,000 in gains through wrong-headed selling.