Numbers can lie -- yet they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:
- The current price multiples.
- The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
- The amount of growth we can expect.
Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how cheap WiMAX equipment specialist Alvarion (Nasdaq: ALVR ) might be.
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the price-to-earnings ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS). The lower the P/E, the better.
Then we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This tool divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). As with the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
A positive one-year ratio of less than 10 for both metrics is ideal. For a five-year metric, less than 20 is ideal. Unfortunately, though, Alvarion has negative multiples all around because of losses.
Alvarion is 0-for-4 on hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it stacks up against some of its competitors and industry mates.
|
Company
|
1-Year P/E
|
1-Year EV/FCF
|
5-Year P/E
|
5-Year EV/FCF
|
| Alvarion |
NM
|
NM
|
NM
|
NM
|
| Ceragon Networks (Nasdaq: CRNT ) |
32.4
|
NM
|
48.8
|
NM
|
| Motorola (NYSE: MOT ) |
39.8
|
6.9
|
111.6
|
9.9
|
| Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO ) |
16.4
|
10.8
|
18.3
|
11.2
|
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; NM = not meaningful.
Numerically, we've seen how Alvarion‘s valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine …
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.
In the past five years, Alvarion's net income margin has ranged from -22.1% to 4.4%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from -15.0% to 6.8%.
In addition, over the past five years, Alvarion has tallied up one year of positive earnings and two years of positive free cash flow.
Next, let's figure out …
How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But even though you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared with similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. With Alvarion's losses, its past growth rate is meaningless, but Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 20.0%.
Here's how Alvarion compares with its peers for trailing five-year growth:
And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:
The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us how cheap shares of Alvarion are trading, how consistent its performance has been, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a negative P/E ratio.
Alvarion's latest quarter provides little solace on the numbers. It posted higher-than-expected sales of $54 million but a larger-than-expected loss after shedding 15 percentage points from last year's gross margin.
If you find something about Alvarion that's compelling, though, don't stop here. Continue your due-diligence process until you’re confident that the initial numbers aren't lying to you.
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