One of the reasons I like writing on the Web is that, while it sometimes comes back to embarrass me, there's a high level of accountability: Every column I've ever written is still posted online. In that spirit, at the beginning of each year I like to review the stocks I discussed in my columns during the previous year.
While I will review my stock picks and pans, keep in mind that I strongly discourage anyone from buying or selling based on what I -- or anyone else -- recommends. My goal is to help my readers think sensibly about investing and develop the tools to make good decisions on their own (keeping in mind that the best decision for many people is to avoid picking individual stocks altogether; there's no shame in mutual funds -- or better yet, given the many scandals in the mutual fund industry, index funds).
In my experience, last year was the toughest year ever to find bargain stocks, so I only recommended three stocks in all of my columns during the year. Not surprisingly, I found it far easier to find stocks to pan, which I did on 18 occasions (in a few cases, I panned the same stock at two different times during the year). On average, my picks were up 32%, and my pans rose 11% -- a good performance, given that I was quite bearish in a year in which all of the major indices rose. I've posted the entire list, with performance information, on the Fool News and Commentary discussion board.
Comments on picks
In January, I wrote that I owned and still liked McDonald's (NYSE: MCD ) and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM ) , which have risen 21% and 31%, respectively, since then (in fact, McDonald's was the best performing stock in the Dow in 2004). I haven't sold a single share of either stock, as I believe both are roughly 80-cent dollars. Two months later, in a column on Bullish Options Strategies, I highlighted a pick from one of my Superinvestor friends, January 2006 $30 LEAP calls on Laboratory Corp of America (NYSE: LH ) , which is up 44% (he still owns and recommends the position).
In addition to my own stock picks, in Top Picks from Money Managers I wrote about six stocks recommended by some of the Buffettesque Superinvestors I'd profiled in my previous column. Led by Doral (NYSE: DRL ) , which has risen 48%, those stocks are up an average of 9% vs. 4% for the S&P 500 over the same period.
In my October column, Blue Chip Bargains?, I profiled the 10 largest market cap U.S.-based companies whose stocks were within 5% of their 52-week lows. While I didn't recommend any of them, I concluded that "I believe it's highly likely that these 10 companies, as a group, will substantially outperform the S&P 500 over any period longer than a year." Three months later, they are up 3%, nearly keeping pace with the S&P's 4% rise over the same period (given their above-average dividend yield, however, I'll call it a dead heat). The best performer has been Sysco (NYSE: SYY ) , up 26%, while Pfizer (NYSE: PFE ) has lagged, falling 16%. I haven't changed my opinion that these 10 companies will beat the market.
Comments on pans
I started the year by reiterating my bearishness on Farmer Mac (NYSE: AGM ) , which has fallen 28% since then, and warning investors about overvalued tech stocks, specifically disclosing that I had made bearish bets on the Nasdaq 100 tracking stock (Nasdaq: QQQQ ) and the Semiconductor Holders Trust (AMEX: SMH ) , which are flat and down 31% since then, respectively.
In February, I wrote negatively about Juniper Networks (Nasdaq: JNPR ) , Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM ) , and Sirius Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI ) -- my worst calls of the year, as they are up 1%, 64%, and 123% since then. So am I ready to admit I'm wrong on these stocks? Heck no! Just give them a little more time. I looked pretty dumb for quite a while on Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD ) , which I warned investors about shortly after its IPO, before being vindicated...
Late in the year, I bashed another group of overvalued stocks, writing:
"...there are plenty of pockets of absurdity. I recently looked at a list of the most heavily traded stocks, and all sorts of nonsense jumped out at me: Travelzoo (Nasdaq: TZOO ) , having risen in the past year from $5 to above $90 and valued at 344 times trailing earnings, is the most extreme example, but let's not forget the Travelzoo of six months ago, Taser (Nasdaq: TASR ) (which has fallen only 27% from its all-time high -- there's a lot more to go), and some fine, yet highly overvalued companies such as Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO ) , Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM ) , Broadcom (Nasdaq: BRCM ) , and eBay (Nasdaq: eBay ) . The company with the lowest trailing P/E among these six stocks is Broadcom, at 60. (And I'm not even considering the impact that expensing options will have.) As a group, these stocks are sure to significantly underperform."
Since then, these stocks are down by an average of 5%, while the Nasdaq has risen 2%.
Advice going forward
After 175 columns for The Motley Fool over more than five years, I can't think of any new advice, so allow me to summarize the timeless, basic principles of sound investing (with links to my columns on each of these topics):
- Before you start picking stocks, make sure you have the three Ts -- time, training, and temperament -- and the Traits of Successful Money Managers.
- Don't speculate. The key to Avoiding Investment Traps is to invest in solidly profitable companies with strong balance sheets.
- If a company is universally acclaimed, its stock is 100 times more likely to be overvalued than undervalued, so Go Against the Grain, Don't Chase Performance, and instead apply The Cocktail-Party Test.
- Never pay up for a stock, no matter how much you like the company. Only buy when you're Trembling With Greed. If you can't find something smart to do, don't do anything! There's a certain Joy of Cash.
- Try to invest in high-quality businesses. Can you recognize The Perfect Business?
- The single greatest advantage an individual investor has is size, so Think Small Companies and make sure that you have an investment edge.
- If you've made a mistake, recognize that it's Never Too Late to Sell, dump the turkey and move on. (Also see To Sell or Not to Sell? ) However, be careful not to panic: Don't Sell at the Bottom.
- Finally, don't get too caught up with investing. Be sure to have A Little Perspective and count your blessings. We all have much to be thankful for (see below).
An update and appeal
My family and I just got back from a wonderful two-week trip to Ethiopia and Kenya, visiting my parents and sister, who live in Nairobi and do development work in education and public health. I wrote about my last visit to Africa nearly four years ago in one of my all-time favorite columns, A Little Perspective, in which I profiled two wonderful Ethiopian charities, the Cheshire Home and the Addis Ababa Fistula Hospital. Many readers were inspired by these two organizations and made contributions, so many years later, I'm back with an update, photos, and stories from two additional worthy charities, and an appeal to join me in supporting all four of them (contact me at Tilson@Tilsonfunds.com for further information).
The Addis Ababa Fistula Hospital is an amazing, inspirational place that for more than 30 years has been healing women suffering from a terrible childbirth injury called an obstetrical fistula. Shortly after my visit four years ago, I joined the board of the Fistula Foundation and am pleased to report that we've raised a great deal of money from thousands of generous Americans, which has allowed the hospital to expand its work and helped ensure its long-term future. Click here to see my Web page from my recent visit to the hospital.
The Cheshire Home, just outside Addis Ababa, heals children crippled by polio so they can walk again. We got lost on the way there so unfortunately we didn't visit it on this trip, but here are two Webpages with photos. The children are beautiful and want so much to walk!
In Kenya, I visited a school in the remote northern part of Kenya inhabited by the nomadic Samburu tribe. Its aim is to significantly increase the primary school enrollment among Samburu children, which is currently less than 10%. As the Samburu increasingly come into contact with modernity, their beautiful culture could be wiped out -- as has happened to so many other indigenous peoples -- unless more of them achieve at least basic literacy. Click here to see my pictures and learn more about this wonderful school.
We visited another school in Kenya run by Homeless Children International, which helps street children in Nairobi. I've posted my web page from our visit here.
Lest you think we spent our entire vacation visiting amazing charities, here are some pictures from our three-day safari in the Masai Mara.
Whitney Tilson is a longtime guest columnist for The Motley Fool. He was long McDonald's and Yum! Brands, was short Farmer Mac and Taser, and owned puts on the Nasdaq 100 tracking stock and the Semiconductor Holders Trust at press time, although positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Whitney appreciates yourfeedback. To read his previous columns for The Motley Fool, as well as other writings, clickhere. The Motley Fool is investors writingfor investors and has a fulldisclosure policy.