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Will Cash Flow Set Liberty Global Free?

Despite my interest in stocks like Central European Media (Nasdaq: CETV  ) and Liberty Global (Nasdaq: LBTYa  ) (Nasdaq: LBTYb  ) (Nasdaq: LBTYk  ) , I'm not a huge fan of the sector. It's tough to turn a buck in the highly competitive market for people's eyeballs -- and Anheuser-Busch's (NYSE: BUD  ) ad dollars -- and I've never been a fan of the convoluted share and ownership structures of some of these businesses.

Nevertheless, I follow where my nose leads me and I think there may yet be the whiff of value with Liberty Global, an international cable company. Sure, there's competition, but there's also cash flow, and the markets may be paying too much attention to the former and not enough to the latter.

For this quarter, Liberty Global reported that revenues rose 38%, and profits from continuing operations more than doubled. Better yet, operating cash flow was up 35%, and the company produced a lot more free cash flow this quarter than in the year-ago period.

Other metrics were a little more mixed. Organic subscriber growth looked all right, but there is still some pressure on the revenue-per-user number. While the company is making progress in getting its subscribers to sign up for additional services, the overall pace of that process suggests that it's still a work in progress.

As I see it, the big question right now is the extent to which Liberty Global's push into higher-growth markets (and out of slower-growth ones) will result in meaningful cash flow improvement. After all, Sweden, Norway, and France are all undoubtedly slower-growing markets than, say, Hungary or Poland. However, your average Western European is still somewhat wealthier and more willing and able to pay more for the same service.

That said, I'm don't agree that Central and Eastern Europeans will enjoy sufficiently strong economic growth to close the standard-of-living gap with the West. With that in mind, I'm still attracted to the cash flow possibilities here. It's not as stable a business as Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA  ) or Cablevision (NYSE: CVC  ) yet, but it may have long-term value nonetheless.

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Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).


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2/14/2012 12:45 PM
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