Has Home Depot Become the Perfect Stock?

Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?

One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if Home Depot (NYSE: HD  ) fits the bill.

The quest for perfection
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:

  • Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
  • Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
  • Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
  • Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
  • Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Home Depot.

Factor

What We Want to See

Actual

Pass or Fail?

Growth 5-Year Annual Revenue Growth > 15% (1.8%) Fail
  1-Year Revenue Growth > 12% 5.0% Fail
Margins Gross Margin > 35% 34.5% Fail
  Net Margin > 15% 5.8% Fail
Balance Sheet Debt to Equity < 50% 60.2% Fail
  Current Ratio > 1.3 1.43 Pass
Opportunities Return on Equity > 15% 22.7% Pass
Valuation Normalized P/E < 20 20.44 Fail
Dividends Current Yield > 2% 2.2% Pass
  5-Year Dividend Growth > 10% 6.3% Fail
       
  Total Score   3 out of 10

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes.

Since we looked at Home Depot last year, the company has lost a couple points. Falling dividend growth and a much higher valuation are to blame for the home improvement retailer's drop in score, although it came with a nearly 50% gain for shareholders.

You'd think that a dicey housing market would have left Home Depot with some big challenges. Rival Lowe's (NYSE: LOW  ) has struggled with weak sales for years, and other smaller niche home-product retailers have had even larger troughs in demand. Conditions have been even worse for homebuilders Pulte (NYSE: PHM  ) , Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV  ) , and Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH  ) , all of which have seen only minimal rebounds from the huge revenue destruction that's happened since the end of the housing boom. Yet Home Depot has been able to survive and even thrive in the bust, with shares recently hitting near decade highs.

A big part of Home Depot's success has been its ability to capitalize on the remodeling trend while at the same time doing its best to cut costs. But a company can only rely on factors like that for so long, as Home Depot's most recent results show. Even after the warm winter, Home Depot wasn't able to meet revenue estimates for its first quarter.

For Home Depot to improve, a lot will depend on how housing performs in the very near future. If the slow recovery trend continues, then the stock could keep doing well. But if the economy tips back toward stagnation or contraction, then all the hopes Home Depot shareholders have could evaporate quickly.

Keep searching
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.

Home Depot isn't the perfect stock, but we've got some ideas you may like better. Let me invite you to learn about three smart long-term stock plays in The Motley Fool's latest special report. It's yours for the taking and is absolutely free, but don't miss out -- click here and read it today.

Click here to add Home Depot to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Fool contributor Dan Caplinger doesn't own shares of the companies mentioned in this article. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Home Depot and writing covered calls on Lowe's. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (0) | Recommend This Article (1)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

Be the first one to comment on this article.

Sponsored Links

Leaked: Apple's Next Smart Device
(Warning, it may shock you)
The secret is out... experts are predicting 458 million of these types of devices will be sold per year. 1 hyper-growth company stands to rake in maximum profit - and it's NOT Apple. Show me Apple's new smart gizmo!

DocumentId: 1917235, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 8/23/2014 7:45:36 AM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...


Advertisement