Stocks usually don't tumble to a 52-week low without a good reason. But when stocks hit such low prices, investors should take a closer look to understand why they were crushed and their chances of recovery. Let's check in on three such stocks -- TripAdvisor (TRIP -0.11%), Chuy's Holdings (CHUY 0.10%), and Coach (TPR 0.60%) -- to see which are bargains and which are bull traps.
Source: YCharts.
TripAdvisor
TripAdvisor recently plunged 14% to a new 52-week low of $71.05 after reporting mixed third-quarter earnings. Revenue rose 39% year over year to $354 million, topping the Thomson Reuters consensus estimate of $348.8 million. However, adjusted earnings per share only rose 7% to $0.48, missing the estimate by $0.12.
During the quarter, TripAdvisor's click-based advertising rose 31% to $247 million. However, the segment only accounted for 70% of the company's top line, down from 74% in the prior-year quarter. Display-based ad revenue climbed 13% to $35 million, while revenue from the subscription, transaction, and others segment logged 106% growth to $72 million. The company noted that its recent acquisition of attractions booking service Viator boosted revenue, but that gain was partially offset by lower than expected click-based revenue growth at its main site.
The biggest problems were with TripAdvisor's expenses and guidance. Operating expenses soared 57% year over year to $259 million. Hinting at higher expenses down the road, the company then lowered its full-year adjusted EBITDA from the high 20-percent range to the low 20s. It reiterated its outlook for full-year revenue growth between the high 20s and low 30s, but that also barely met market expectation for 31.5% growth.
In my opinion, investors shouldn't consider TripAdvisor a bargain yet, since it still trades at 28 times forward earnings. By comparison, industry peers priceline.com and Orbitz trade at 17 and 19 times forward earnings, respectively. Therefore, TripAdvisor stock could slip further if its trend of rising expenses and lower click-based revenue growth continues.
Chuy's Holdings
Chuy's Holdings plunged more than 31% to a new 52-week low of $20.68 after the Tex-Mex restaurant chain reported dismal third-quarter earnings.
At first glance, the numbers weren't terrible. Sales rose 19.9% year over year to $64.1 million, while net income spiked 10.3% to $3.1 million, or $0.19 per share. Unfortunately, that missed analyst expectations by half a million in sales and a penny in earnings. Comparable sales growth came in at 3%, which disappointed investors looking for numbers closer to Chipotle, which posted nearly 20% comparable sales growth last quarter.
Meanwhile, total costs and expenses rose 21% year over year to $59.9 million, due to higher labor, food, and utility costs. To top off that bad news, Chuy's slashed its full-year earnings guidance by $0.09 to a range between $0.67 to $0.69 per share, due to higher costs and food inflation. The main hope now for Chuy's is to expand outside its home state of Texas and evolve into a national chain. The company added four new restaurants during the quarter (two outside of Texas), bringing its total new store count to 11 for the year. Investors won't get a good idea of how these locations are performing until next year, when more will be included in comparable sales numbers.
Although Chuy's looks oversold at the moment, the stock still trades at 25 times forward earnings, which means it can't be considered a value stock yet. However, if Chuy's gains traction in other states as food costs decline, $20 per share might seem like a bargain in retrospect a few years down the road.
Coach
Iconic handbag maker Coach has seen its shares plunge 41% since the beginning of the year. Over the past three years, Michael Kors (CPRI -2.90%) seemed destined to crush Coach in the "affordable luxury" segment. Last quarter, Coach's revenue fell 10% year over year to $1.04 billion, as net income plunged 45% to $119 million, continuing a long streak of losses.
Source: YCharts.
The problem with Coach is that it lost its luxury appeal in North America due to brand-diluting discounts at department stores and factory outlets. Moreover, Reed Krakoff, Coach's president and creative director for 16 years, left the company last year.
Yet there are still glimmer of hope. Coach's North American sales declined 19% to $634 million last quarter, but international sales climbed 4% to $381 million. Sales in China surged 10%, indicating that strong demand from the nation's rising middle class could eventually offset weaker demand in more mature markets.
Coach is also well aware of its own shortcomings. The company reduced margin-damaging promotional events last quarter, and hired Stuart Vevers, the creative director at LVMH's Spanish luxury fashion house Loewe, as Krakoff's replacement to breathe new life into Coach's aging designs. This turnaround effort will certainly take time, but the downside for the stock is quite limited based on current valuations. Coach currently trades at 16 times forward earnings, with a nice forward annual dividend yield of 4.1%, making it an income-generating bargain in my book.
