The implications and potential impact of the AOL-Time Warner merger are enormous, but not easily pinned down. The things that make it more than just an outsized mega-merger also defy the official lines of regulatory oversight. That's why the deal is being wrestled with rather than rubber-stamped. It's only right that it be put under a microscope.
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The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) will also consider the merger Thursday. But where its official role is limited to competition and antitrust issues, the FCC's concerns are matters of public interest. Those are also fine distinctions, made even finer by the unprecedented circumstances of this deal. Separately, AOL and Time Warner are not easily categorized. But together?
Let me say before going on that I'm an AOL shareholder and voted my shares in favor of the deal. If it gets approved and if the companies can make it work, I think the new company can be stronger than either would have been separately, not that things would have remained as they were.
I also like the idea of the merger, independent of my owning shares. The union of AOL and Time Warner is just one huge and outrageous and vaguely insane cultural event. For those reasons alone, I want to see them do it.
With that said....
Specious limitations
The implications and potential impact of the merger are enormous, but not easily pinned down. The things that make it more than just an outsized mega-merger also defy the official lines of the FCC's and FTC's oversight. That's why the deal is being wrestled with rather than rubber-stamped.
As FCC commissioner Gloria Tristani put it, "Specious limitations on this commission's authority to protect and advance the public interest belong in the last century."
We can find broad comparisons between other mergers and this one, or between other companies and the company this merger would create. But it's the details that will make that company unique -- and meaningfully so. Even the best comparison would break down in view of the reach and scale of AOL/Time Warner, and its capacity to operate as a cultural agent.
What do we get by grafting an interactive marketing juggernaut onto the world's largest intellectual property factory?
We've got monsters
In reality, or what passes for it at the dawn of the "Internet Century," we don't know what this union will produce. That's why we can appropriately -- but not necessary with prejudice -- call AOL/Time Warner a "monster." It's only right that this deal be poked and prodded and put under a microscope. Monsters should not be created lightly or haphazardly.
They almost always are, though.
Monsters happen. They don't easily lend themselves to checks and balances or yield to the filters designed to trap lesser creations. Monsters slip through cracks or pass overhead or under the radar. And sometimes monsters coast right through the front door having managed to escape being adequately grasped.
And let's not forget: Monsters are cool.
That's why the eyes-open recognition of monsters is usually a retrospective affair following unintended consequences. But by then the strongest monsters have ingratiated themselves into the fabric of our lives.
Monster mash
My guess -- though I wouldn't bet against my being wrong on this -- is that this monster will come into being without much incident, since it's being fought on the basis of parochial business interests, such as Disney (NYSE: DIS) and IMUnified -- just the kind of conflicts the system understands and is set up to handle and reconcile.
Monster-like imagery may be invoked in opposing the merger, but believing in monsters -- to say nothing of fighting them -- takes more than the self-interest of the assorted monsters manqué haunting the Halls of Regulation.
Should the AOL-Time Warner merger be approved? As I said, I voted for it. If we can't avoid creating monsters -- it seems to be something we do -- why not a monster of a monster? I know, not very good reasoning. But I'm still working on that telecom-information-cable services distinction. Until that one is solved, I figure we might as well push the specious limits and monster on.
Your Turn:
Voice your opinion in this poll: Should the AOL-Time Warner merger be approved? Or would that just create a monster? Share your thoughts with other Fools on our AOL and Time Warner discussion boards.
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