In some future time, when the stock market is booming again and you're feeling invincible, just pull up the CMGI (NASDAQ: CMGI) chart for the year 2000. As the New Year rang in, Internet incubator CMGI could do no wrong. The stock had zoomed over the $160 mark, and CEO David Wetherell was hailed as a visionary. Now, with nine shopping days left until Christmas, CMGI is trading under $9 and Wetherell is viewed as a Grinch who has lost his golden touch.

As Wetherell announced first quarter 2001 earnings results yesterday, he did his best to assure investors (this writer included) that the company is stable and moving toward profitability. CMGI and the companies under its umbrella have significantly reduced their reliance on advertising, CFO Andy Hajducky said on a conference call last night, with less than 20% of consolidated revenue now tied to ads following the disposition of 1stUp.com and iCast.

With $800 million in cash and another $200 million on the books of its subsidiaries, Wetherell says there is enough money to fund operations for at least another 30 months if profitability is not reached beforehand. Cost reductions continue, and CMGI has saved millions by reducing its stable from 17 companies to 13. (Cutting loose 1stUp.com and iCast will save almost $40 million per quarter alone.) Wetherell says to expect more trimming, as the total CMGI family should be down to no more than nine companies by the end of the fiscal year-- just the fastest-growing or those most strategic to the long-term plans.

The numbers
First quarter losses and revenue are up sharply over the year-ago period. Including various charges, CMGI posted a loss of $636.6 million for the quarter, an increase of 442% from last year but a slight improvement from last quarter. That equates to a loss of $2.07 a share, beating consensus estimates by $0.06. Revenue came in at $366.1 million, a jump of 184% but a drop of 3% sequentially.

The analysts
If the stock has confounded you this year, don't feel alone. Even those paid to follow the company closely are still scrambling to get a handle on things. Example: Lazard Freres issued a "buy" at $112 in January. Today, 11 months later, the firm is officially "neutral" on CMGI. Lazard is far from alone, as several firms had "buy" or "strong buy" ratings when the price was over $100.

The future
Certainly, the changing advertising climate and the crashing IPO market took most analysts and investors by surprise. The question now is whether Wetherell, in the face of adversity and doubt, really can steer CMGI to profitability before the money runs out. Wetherell, of course, is confident: "CMGI does not need the IPO market to be successful." Sure, the company benefited when that market was strong, he says, but it when it returns to strength, "We'll be in a position to benefit again."

His detractors are many these days, however, and unlike just a few short months ago, investors are looking for results rather than promises.