Motley Fool QuickNews
March 6, 2000
Closing Market Numbers
DJIA 10170.50 -196.70 (-1.90%) S&P 500 1391.28 -17.89 (-1.27%) Nasdaq 4904.85 -9.94 (-0.20%) Russell 2000 601.64 +3.76 (+0.63%) 30-Year Bond 101 14/32 -5/32 6.14 Yield NOW 50 1984.17 -30.92 (-1.53%)
We last visited upscale house wares and home furnishings company Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) in November, when the unsuspecting shares were just about ready to flop from their winter highs. The sell-off, prompted by holiday sales figures that missed some analysts' projections, prompted something of a back-and-forth between company bulls and bears in the financial press. Today's Market Movers:
UPS
Microprocessor maker Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) ramped up $6 3/4 to $48 1/4 after announcing that it has started commercial shipments of its 1GHz Athlon processors. The first PC systems to offer the 1 GHz chip will be available from AMD clients Compaq (NYSE: CPQ) and Gateway (NYSE: GTW).
Cancer treatments researcher NeoRx Corp. (Nasdaq: NERX) surged $32 15/16 to $54 3/4 after publishing the results of a study involving its Pretarget proprietary radioimmuntherapy method that cured established human lung, colon, and breast cancers implanted in mice with a single dose of radioactivity. The study defined a "cure" as the complete disappearance of the tumor and absence of any re-growth for at least one year.
Hotel and casino operator Mirage Resorts (NYSE: MIR) rolled $2 11/16 higher to $18 9/16 after agreeing to merge with rival MGM Grand (NYSE: MGG) in a deal valued at $6.4 billion in cash and assumed debt. MGM Grand's offer works out to $21 per Mirage share, higher than the $17 per share offer originally slapped down on the poker table by MGM Grand two weeks ago.
Biopharmaceutical company Pharmos Corp. (Nasdaq: PARS) jumped $3 1/4 to $13 1/2 after saying a pre-clinical study of its dexanabinol non-psychotropic cannabis derivative found that the product "significantly reduced the functional and pathological brain defects" of an animal model of multiple sclerosis.
Drug developer Isis Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ISIP) added $9 7/16 to $33 13/16 after saying it has received U.S. patents on antisense inhibitors to 20 genes over the last two months, including antisense inhibitors to genes related to inflammatory responses, drug resistance, cancer, and other areas.
DOWNS
Drug developer Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) dropped $4 9/16 to $46 15/16 after Salomon Smith Barney analyst Christina Heuer cut her rating on the stock to "outpeform" from "buy," saying that FDA approval of the firm's Orzel colorectal cancer drug is taking longer than expected.
Radio station operator Clear Channel (NYSE: CCU) slid $4 3/8 to $68 after announcing the details of a plan to divest 72 of its stations in 27 markets in order to receive regulatory approval of its proposed merger with AMFM Inc. (NYSE: AFM). The company also received a less than optimistic write-up in the latest issue of Barron's, which reported that future growth may slow due to the firm's recently announced merger with entertainment firm SFX Entertainment (NYSE: SFX).
International electric power generator Edison International (NYSE: EIX) was zapped for a $7 11/16 loss to $17 15/16 after warning that lower revenues in the U.K. will lead to fiscal 2000 EPS between $1.90 and $2.10, down from the previously expected range of $2.20 to $2.30.
Today's Top Stories:
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Kmart really worked to squeeze 17% EPS growth out of a 6.6% increase in annual sales and a 4.8% comparable-store sales increase. They did it by cobbling together small decreases in various segments of the income statement: SG&A, as a percentage of sales, was 18.2% in 1999 versus 18.5% in 1998; the company's early retirement plan expired; and interest payments dropped 4.6%. As a result, operating margins increased from 3.2% to 3.6% and net margins grew from 1.5% to 1.8%.
Little improvements are the key to success in the discount-retailing sector. With every baby step, Kmart becomes more profitable. The trouble is that its main competitors, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT), have for some time been taking big-boy steps, continuing to grow significantly faster than Kmart. As a result, Kmart has long looked more unappealing to investors, as this 10-year chart illustrates. See the flat line? That's Kmart's heartbeat on Wall Street.
Last year, Target (just the eponymous store, not the whole company) achieved net margins of 6.4% on increases of 13% in revenue and 6.7% in comparable-store sales. Wal-Mart, on similar revenue and comps increases, had 3.3% margins. Since 1996, Target has seen total sales rise 46%. Wal-Mart's have shot up 77%. Kmart's have grown a scant 14%.
Why do Kmart's sales and margins lag behind its competitors? I'll give you my take, which can be summed up in two words: inventory management. Last year, Kmart improved its inventory cycle from 89.5 days to 88.5 days. That means that Kmart turns its inventory 4.1 times a year. While it's nice to see some improvement on this front, Kmart has a long way to go to reach the level of its competitors. Target and Wal-Mart both turn their inventory over about 7 times a year. Wal-Mart also leaves its accounts payable outstanding longer than Kmart, so that Wal-Mart runs through its cash conversion cycle 16 times a year compared to Kmart's 6.
To give you an idea of how much this slower inventory turnover hurts Kmart, consider this: If Kmart turned its inventory at the rate that Wal-Mart does, it would have had $11 billion -- yes, billion with a "b" -- more cash at its disposal over the course of the year. $11 billion sat tied up in inventory on Kmart's shelves. What else could Kmart have done with that money? It could have advertised more. It could have paid back more of its debt. It could have finally given some of its stores the makeover that they have been begging for since the '70s.
It could have been so much more than it was.
With differences like that between Kmart and its competition, the company has to do more than take sluggish steps toward efficiency. Without major changes, don't look for a heartbeat from Kmart anytime soon.
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FOOL PLATE SPECIAL An Investment Opinion
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Depending on which pack you run with, now is either a time to say, "Are you kidding?" or "I told you so," the stock sitting at one-third of where it was as of our last article. Today, the company provided more fuel for either fire, really, by announcing that fourth-quarter earnings will likely be "disappointing": Williams-Sonoma said to expect Q4 EPS of $0.81 or $0.82, missing First Call's $0.94 consensus estimate.
Fourth-quarter revenues rose 21.8% to $537.2 million as store count expanded 15% to 344. Same-store sales improved 4.4%, while catalog and Internet sales -- led by the Pottery Barn and Pottery Barn Kids lines of casual furnishings -- raced ahead 30% to $188.7 million. Full-year sales totaled $1.38 billion, about 25% more than in 1998. Williams-Sonoma's full earnings report is due March 15.
Williams-Sonoma gave a few reasons for the earnings surprise. First, it said it recorded a reserve against expected returns that turned out to be larger than expected because of the growth in its direct-sales business.
The company also trotted out a predictable, if not necessarily unworthy, excuse in saying it spent heavily to ensure that its website -- launched just in time for the holidays -- was ready to meet demand. Ironically, though the company said it was able to fulfill shoppers' celebratory wishes, the cost was dear: "The increased direct-to-customer demand and the inventories required to support that demand," said Williams-Sonoma's press release today, "impaired labor efficiencies and occupancy needs, leading to higher than expected expenses."
Costs were also impacted by other growth-related improvement measures, the company said, including work to streamline the company's system for restocking its stores.
They are all factors that probably could have been made known to investors before today, and seem to reflect the company's management letting things get away from them a bit in Q4. What does it mean to investors? Quite a bit, apparently, since the shares quickly fell approximately 40% in morning trading, establishing a new 52-week low. A few brokerages downgraded the stock today, no doubt assisting the slide. The next step for investors wondering what's wrong with this steady grower might be to hang back a bit and wait for its full-year earnings release and annual report in hopes of uncovering additional pitfalls -- or the lack thereof.
Still, it's worth keeping in mind that if you scale Williams-Sonoma's projected full-year 2000 earnings back by the same amount that 1999 EPS missed estimates, the stock currently trades at 13 times the forward-looking figure. That's pretty cheap for this top-shelf company, and Foolish investors might want to consider Williams-Sonoma for more research at these prices.
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More of Today's Best:
BREAKFAST WITH THE FOOL
Celestial Is Now Hain's Cup of Tea
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-- Natural, specialty, and snack food company The Hain Group (Nasdaq: HAIN) has reached agreement to acquire specialty tea company Celestial Seasonings (Nasdaq: CTEA) for about $390 million in stock and debt. The deal, expected to add to earnings (excluding merger-related charges) in the first year of combined operations, will add another name-brand specialty product to Hain's natural food labels, which include products such as Garden of Eatin, Westbrae, Earth's Best, and Nile Spice. Under terms of the agreement, Hain will exchange 1.265 shares of stock for each outstanding share of Celestial. The exchange rate values Celestial, up about 53% since the beginning of the year, at about a 43% premium to its closing price on Friday.
FULL STORY >>
Biomatrix and Genzyme: A New Form of Biotech
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-- It's not everyday that a leading biotechnology company is created out of the blue, but that's exactly what multi-division biotech company Genzyme Corp. did this morning. In a three-pronged transaction, separately traded Genzyme tracking stocks Genzyme Tissue Repair (Nasdaq: GZTR) and Genzyme Surgical Products (Nasdaq: GZSP) will combine their operations with formerly independent bio-orthepedics products developer Biomatrix (NYSE: BXM) to form an all-new Genzyme division to be called Genzyme Biosurgery. The new Biosurgery division will be charged with carrying the Genzyme standard in the emerging field of using biomaterials and biothertherapeutic products in surgical and medical procedures. The creation of Genzyme Biosurgery boosted the share prices of all three companies involved today.
FULL STORY >>
Elan Nabs Liposome
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-- Specialty pharmaceutical company Elan (NYSE: ELN), based in Dublin, Ireland, took a big step into the world of oncology products today with its acquisition of The Liposome Company (Nasdaq: LIPO) for about $575 million in stock. The deal, worth about $15.28 per share, is about a 6% premium based on Liposome's close Friday. Biotechnology company Liposome's shares plunged last September after an oncology committee failed to recommend its cancer-fighting drug Evacet for FDA approval. Built through acquisitions, Elan is transforming itself from a drug-delivery company into a specialty pharmaceutical manufacturer with a pipeline expected to deliver big results.
FULL STORY >>
FOOL ON THE HILL An Investment Opinion
Market Restructuring: What's in It for Investors?
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-- One of the hot topics on Wall Street these days is the issue of restructuring the stock markets by creating a central order book -- a "big screen," if you will, that would reveal orders from all sectors, including the numerous online brokerages and electronic communication networks, also known as ECNs. The idea is that this would prevent "fragmentation" of markets and increase efficiency and liquidity. Sounds good, right? Who's against improved market efficiency and liquidity? Well, the issue is a bit complicated, and opponents of market restructuring dispute whether it would, in fact, improve efficiency and liquidity. You might be surprised at who's championing for change and who's resisting it.
FULL STORY >>
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