Global Crossing Looks Awfully Cheap

Global Crossing has fallen on hard times, just like all of the other telecom carriers, especially those that used to be investment darlings. But Global Crossing has relatively little debt and it has completed building its core network, so its capital expenditures should drop. Investors looking to buy when others are afraid could do much worse.

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By Bill Mann (TMF Otter)
July 3, 2001

Everyone, it seems, hates telecom these days. Like Icarus, the mythological Greek figure, telecommunications companies flew too close to the sun in the late 1990s and then plunged into the sea. We aren't done with the pain yet, not by a long shot. There is a significant level of "stupid money" still to be wrung out of the sector before the real players can begin to make themselves whole.

And yet this Fool believes that there are several companies among the carriers that will make attractive long-term investments. As the best investors are those who are capable of finding value where others see only carnage, I think it's time to be picking through the wreckage. There are some gems in there, and they're cheap.

One such company that looks to be well-positioned for, well, survival for one thing, is Bermuda-based Global Crossing (NYSE: GX). It's got all of the attributes of a telecom company: a fair amount of debt, large installed base assets, and operational losses. Unfortunately, even for the eventual winners in this business, that is the name of the game right now. (For more on this sector, visit our Telecom & Networking InDepth page.)

Here's how it will work: There are still dozens of underfunded telecom companies that are muddying the market with bandwidth that they are selling at firesale prices. Why? Because they desperately need cash to cover their debt loads. They need cash more than they need profits, so they have no choice but to sell below cost.

However, the arguments that a) there is a fiber glut, and b) the telecom providers will never make money are both ridiculous. The companies with built-out networks and plenty of low-levered working capital will be fine. I don't know when this will happen, but I believe that it is inevitable. For the meantime, you will continue to see Global Crossing delivering negative cash earnings (gross earnings less depreciation and amortization), which for fiscal 2000 were a loss of $15 million.

Global Crossing is one of only a few companies that fit the above description. Last month it announced that it had completed its core network, which spans some 27 countries and links Asia, North and South America, and Europe. With the capital networks closed to potential competitors, this network provides Global Crossing a distinct advantage. As it stands, such carriers as Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) and Qwest (NYSE: Q) have purchased capacity on Global Crossing facilities. These erstwhile competitors found that on certain international routes purchasing dedicated bandwidth from Global Crossing was more efficient and cheaper than laying their own cables.

In addition, Global Crossing announced yesterday that it was selling its U.S.-based local phone network to Citizens Communications (NYSE: CZN) for $3.5 billion in cash. According to a Global Crossing spokesman, at least part of these proceeds are to be used for retiring some of the company's $7.3 billion debt load. While that is a large amount, investors should recognize that much of Global Crossing's capital investments are now behind it.

With all that debt, Global Crossing is no slam-dunk. But with its current market capitalization of $8 billion and a tangible book value of close to $7 billion (I back out the line item "deferred revenue"), Global Crossing is priced at a point that is close to take-out value. Depending on how the gains from the sale to Citizens are used, and based on actual book value -- rather than accounting book value, which depreciates assets regardless of whether or not they are actually losing value -- Global Crossing may already be at that point. With either eventuality, the future for its shareholders could be bright.

Bill Mann repairs household appliances in his spare time. He holds a position in Qwest. The Motley Fool is investors writing for investors.

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