Diabetes treatments take stage at ADA meeting

Pharmaceutical giants Merck & Co., Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. and Novartis AG will be among the companies hoping to catch the attention of physicians at the American Diabetes Association's annual meeting this weekend.

Throughout the five-day meeting, which begins Friday in San Francisco, physicians and analysts will see a flurry of data that could either help solidify market positions for current treatments or give developing competitors a boost. One of the key focuses will be comparisons of drugs potentially competing to better control blood-sugar within two classes of treatments.

New York-based Bristol-Myers will present data on its drug candidate saxagliptin, which could pose a threat to Whitehouse Station, N.J.-based Merck's Januvia. Denmark-based Novo Nordisk will be presenting data on its drug Liraglutide, which could pose a threat to sales of Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Eli Lilly & Co.'s Byetta and their developing drug Exenatide.

Lehman Brothers analyst Charles Butler and several others said the focus of the meeting will be on a class of drugs called GLP-1, which include Byetta and Liraglutide and control blood sugar levels. Byetta sales jumped to 48 percent in 2007, reaching $636 million. Wall Street has been looking to the long-acting version of Byetta, called Exenatide, as one of the next key revenue drivers for San Diego-based Amylin.

"While we do not expect any new surprises from Byetta LAR (Exenatide) studies, we do however believe that data will present responses from physicians on its efficacy and any details regarding gastrointestinal effects in the studies will be important to establish its competitive advantages over other drugs in the same class," Butler said.

Merck's Januvia, which brought in $667.5 million for the company in 2007, could face some pressure from study data on its developing competition. Citi Investment Research analyst George Grofik expects positive study data for Bristol-Myers' saxagliptin, a DPP-4 inhibitor that works to control blood-sugar through the same process as Januvia. Prior studies have shown a possible skin toxicity side effect to the saxagliptin and he hopes late-stage study data provides more details.

Also, Takeda Pharmaceuticals' developing DPP-4 drug, alogliptin, could be the next approved in the class, Grofik said, presenting an immediate competitive threat to Januvia.

Other companies presenting study findings at the ADA meeting on developing diabetes treatments include Valencia, Calif.-based MannKind Corp., Paris-based Sanofi-Aventis, and New York-based Pfizer Inc.