FOOL ON THE HILL
Me and My Big Mouth

Skepticism is one of the most useful attributes for an individual investor. Two days ago we started discussing the fact that an international company was getting hammered in the stock markets thanks to some articles with pretty thin reasoning. Well, it turns out there was more to come, and the company continues to bungle its own defense. This is another reminder why investors ought to be extra careful when dealing with non-U.S. companies.

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By Bill Mann (TMF Otter)
December 21, 2001

As one of my email correspondents pointed out, "the irony is fairly delicious." Two days ago I was sitting in front of the Senate discussing a lack of skepticism among Wall Street analysts in regard to 18 months worth of hints that things were not as they seemed with Enron (NYSE: ENE) and its balance sheet. In my column on Wednesday in this space, I took Herb Greenberg to task for using some unsubstantiated message board posts and a trade publication as the basis of a lynching of Belgian-Cypriot car shipping company, ACLN (NYSE: ASW). Well, it seems that skeptical deficiency has struck here as well. Of course, the difference is that when a Wall Street analyst keeps a rating on a stock he or she has a raft of retail brokers pounding the phones trying to get investors to trade on that "information."

The fact is, as I write this, Herb's another two articles into his expose, and ACLN stock is down, oh, 65%.

Great. That's timing at its best. Greenberg's later articles are a much deeper look at some questions about ACLN. They are frankly much better done and more substantial than his initial takes on the company. I wonder why it is he didn't lead with the power rather than the innuendo?

My understanding of the shipping industry, for example, is that you would almost never see a ship that is actually owned directly by the parent company, for all sorts of liability reasons. Urs Dur, Managing Editor of Marine Money, confirmed this, saying that "nearly every ship in the world is technically a company unto itself, so the fact that there is a discrepancy is not unusual." The big worry to my mind, one that did not come up in Greenberg's column, was whether the company actually has anywhere close to the $117 million it claimed in its last 6-K, a point brought up by a J.P. Morgan analyst who tracks the company. The company put out a press release on Thursday stating that it does not comment on rumor or stock price actions. Hombres, this isn't a rumor or a stock price action: your credibility is at stake.

Let me put it this way: If ACLN does not have substantially close to the $117 million they claim on their recent financial statements in cash, well then I take back everything nice I ever said about Belgians. Except the part about them having good beer. I'm taking a bullet here. By writing about this again today I cannot make a trade in the stock for an additional five days due the Fool's trading policy. If ACLN doesn't represent, by the time my trading window opens once again the possibility exists that I could be trading with the same bozos who keep trading Enron stock today thinking that a rebound is nigh.

There are some issues that I've covered in the past regarding international companies that bear repeating in light of the events of the past few days. I mean this regardless of what happens to ACLN.

Simply put, there is no reason in the world why individual investors should feel compelled to own international equities. Companies domiciled in countries outside of the United States operate under dramatically different rules, and if you think that there is room for malfeasance under the highly regulated American system of corporate governance, then just imagine what can take place in countries that lack the same disclosure requirements or enforcement resources.

One of the issues that is bound to come up due to the dramatic undulations of the stock market over this past year is "diversification." This is a good idea, but just like most other good ideas, it is one that is generally carried to extremes with ill-effect. Diversification means that you should endeavor to own some different asset classes, and you should keep sufficient cash on hand to take care of any sudden financial emergencies that may come up. It also means that you should not do something like own nine different kinds of technology companies. That's not diversification.

Many advisors will tell you that you need to have exposure to international as well as American companies, for diversification. No, you don't. Although every economy in the world moves in its own ebbs and flows, globalization has raised the level of linkage between most of the biggest markets in the world. When the market rises 5% in the U.S. in a year, European ones will generally rise in lockstep somewhere between 4.5% and 5.5%. If you're not willing to learn a thing or two about accounting standards and corporate practices in Germany, you're putting your money at more risk owning a German company like DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DCX).

American companies, at any rate, can offer you plenty of economic diversity, due to the fact that a) the United States is such a dynamic environment, and b) plenty of American companies generate 50% or more of their revenues from overseas sources.

If you own Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), more than 60% of the revenues that the value of your stock is pinned to are generated from sources outside of the United States. Ditto for Gillette (NYSE: G). American International Group (NYSE: AIG), one of the largest insurers in the world, generates barely 10% of its revenues in the United States. And yet these companies and their managers are beholden to American securities laws, filing requirements, and commercial codes.

The environment in many international markets is improving, and many companies that are listed in the United States have begun reporting their earnings under U.S. accounting as well as that of their home markets. I have praised Finland and Singapore in the past for the environments they have created for outside shareholders, but there aren't that many Finnish or Singaporean companies available on U.S. stock exchanges.

Regardless of whether ACLN turns out to have been a story of sloppiness or one of fraud, there is a basic element of truth: the fact that it is a Belgian company with a Cypriot domicile ought to give investors pause. Not because there is anything inherently wrong with Belgium or with Cyprus, but the fact is that it makes such a company more difficult to track, more difficult to understand, and more risky to own.

Bill Mann's favorite Belgian beer is Chimay. Bill owns shares in ACLN and follows The Motley Fool's disclosure policy.... Have you looked at the charities available in this year's Foolanthropy?