Every once in a while, you'll find investment opportunities that appear to be priced on the assumption that the company is going to go out of business. That happened with Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) not too long ago, and while I didn't invest in that one, I've made plenty of money over the years from these situations. And maybe that's the case today for banana, fruit, and produce producer Chiquita Brands (NYSE: CQB).
As we saw from Fresh Del Monte (NYSE: FDP), this was an utterly brutal quarter. Though reported sales rose about 24%, reality was more like down 2% when you adjust for the acquisition of Fresh Express. While bananas and the fresh fruit/vegetables business both posted similar high mid-single-digit drops, Fresh Express was actually up on an adjusted basis.
Even worse than the revenue number, which really isn't that bad, were the profit numbers. Higher fuel, freight, tariff, and banana purchasing costs killed the margins. The operating margin was cut nearly seven full points, and operating income dropped 58%. As you might imagine, this wasn't good for net income or operating cash flow, either.
Yet here I sit thinking, "Maybe this is worth a buy." Putting these numbers into my value model and assuming practically no growth forever, the stock still looks cheap even with a margin of safety slapped atop all of that. And given that the company most likely won't face these kinds of fuel, freight, tariff, and banana-buying costs indefinitely, I'm OK with those estimates.
So why, you may ask, do I like Chiquita over Fresh Del Monte? A couple of reasons that have nothing to do with the numbers. First, I simply trust Chiquita more -- it makes more information available to shareholders more quickly, and I think that bespeaks a respect for the co-owners of the business. Second, Chiquita's fresh-cut business seems stronger than Fresh Del Monte's, and that could be an incremental positive, as I expect conditions in the banana and produce businesses to affect each company a little more equally.
I'm nervous about this scenario, and I already own one agricultural stock, but I just can't shake the feeling that this is a promising overreaction. Maybe what's true for Chiquita is also true for Fresh Del Monte, but Chiquita would be my pick if I were to add some fruit to my stock basket.
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Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).
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