OUR TAKE
The Motley Fool Take on Thursday, July 11, 2002
Retail Rebound

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A few days ago, we said good-bye to one of baseball's all-time greats, Ted Williams. At least, we tried to say good-bye. His son, however, is not letting us.

In an extremely bizarre turn of events, John Henry Williams has sent his father's body to a lab in Scottsdale, Ariz., to have it cryogenically frozen. In the meantime, Ted's daughter, Barbara Joyce Williams Ferrell, is going nuts trying to get the body back. She says her father wanted his remains to be cremated and scattered over his old fishing grounds in the Florida Keys.

But wait, it gets better. Ms. Ferrell Williams is trying to invoke the help of President Bush and former astro-senator John Glenn to get her father's body back out of the freezer. No word yet if they're interested in getting in the middle of all this.

The Motley Fool 50 -- which finished the day up a percent -- has left clear instructions that when it goes to that great index party in the sky, its remains are to be shredded by an Arthur Andersen employee and sprinkled over Wall Street.

In today's Motley Fool Take:

Retail Rebound

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) unleashed a double round of good news today, reporting strong same-store sales and raising earnings guidance. And, in a promising sign, several other retailers also announced strong June results.

Wal-Mart, the world's top retailer, said same-store sales rose 7.9% for the five-week period ending July 5. That compares with a 6.9% increase during the same period last year and is about 20% higher than expectations. Based on that showing, the company bumped up earnings guidance by a couple of pennies to $0.44 to $0.45 per share for the quarter and $1.76 to $1.78 for the full year.

Also joining in the fun and posting better-than-expected same-store sales were Target (NYSE: TGT), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), Chico's FAS (NYSE: CHS), Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD), Pacific Sunwear of California (Nasdaq: PSUN), and Saks (NYSE: SKS).

Interestingly, most of these are lagging the market today, indicating investors are unwilling to believe the strong showings will continue. Just as many ignored bad news during the bull market, this hesitance to accept good news might be looked upon as a sign the bear has mostly run its course. Of course, who's crazy enough to call the bottom? Not us.

Quote of Note

"In a recession, dermatologists are always the first ones to get hit. If people need brain surgery, no matter how trivial, they find the money. But if they get a rash, they just scratch till times get better." -- Phyllis Lindstrom on The Mary Tyler Moore Show

Yahoo for Yahoo!

It's the dot-com revolution, version 2.0. Moving away from the Internet bubble model where online advertising, eyeballs, and clickthroughs were all that mattered, Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) continues to make strides in making the Web pay. Literally. With its first quarterly profit in nearly two years, the company saw revenue climb by 24% and is upping its guidance for the full year.

Thanks to the successful rollout of new premium services and the acquisition of the HotJobs.com career-placement site, the company continues to wean itself off site sponsors. Non-advertising revenue is now up to 40% of the Yahoo! top-line pie.

But it's not as if the tollbooths are coming down all over the information superhighway. While the popular portal claims 238 million registered users, just one million are paying customers. But think about it. A million users paying an average of $10 a month is pretty hearty. Not only is the company expecting the billable headcount to double by the end of the year, but that number will still be less than 1% of its registered user base.

The company posted June quarter earnings of $0.03 a share on revenue of $225.8 million. That topped expectations of a $0.02-a-share profit on a $215 million top-line showing. For all of 2002, the company now expects revenue to come in as high as $940 million. Selling the Internet as a haven of free stuff was easy, but earning the right to charge for its services has proven to be the ultimate act of success.

Discussion Board of the Day: Yahoo!

How do you feel about Yahoo! and its premium services? What will you pay for online? What will you not pay for online? All this and more -- in the Yahoo! Discussion Board. Only on Fool.com.

Saving for a Rainy Day

Yes, we're all wondering what to do now. (In fact, we even wrote a book about it.) Your first line of defense in troubled times: a comfy cash cushion. You can consider this to be your emergency fund, your opportunity fund, or your "at least this account won't drop 20% in one week" fund. Whatever you call it, several thousand dollars sitting in a safe, liquid investment is ballast in the storm.

The standard advice about emergency funds is that you should have three to six months' worth of income stashed away in cash equivalents. What are those? Boring things you get at the bank, like savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit. You won't earn a lot of interest on these types of accounts, and they're no fun to talk about at parties. (Could you imagine someone taking a sip of his martini and saying, "I don't mean to brag, but I just bought a CD that pays 5%"?) But the money will be there tomorrow, if you need it.

Why would you need it? Because sudden, unexpected, big-ticket expenses are part of life. Car repairs cost hundreds of dollars, house repairs often cost thousands, and body repairs... well, you just better hope you have good health insurance. Then there's the fate suffered by tens of thousands of people over the past few years: the loss of a job. If you don't have a reliable source of cash to draw upon in these circumstances, you may have to consign yourself to the shackles of credit. Relying on plastic in times of need just makes a bad situation worse. Looking for a new job is no fun; doing so while covering your expenses with a credit card that charges 18% interest is a nightmare.

To learn more about how much you should have stuffed in your cash cushion, and how you can get some decent rates on money markets and CDs, visit our Short-Term Savings Center.

Shameless Plug: Order Now, Thank Us Later

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Quick Takes

Security software bigwig Network Associates (NYSE: NET) made shareholders insecure after lowering third-quarter and full-year guidance. Previously, earnings of $0.14 per share on $231 million in third-quarter sales were anticipated. Now, $0.11 to $0.13 per share on sales of up to $215 million is expected. Second-quarter results met estimates.

Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) reaffirmed guidance for the quarter even while saying that demand in parts of Europe is weakening and U.S. demand is simply not getting worse. The software giant is also launching a new e-mail program to compete with Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) Exchange. Good luck.

Investors said "I'll C U" to ICN Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: ICN) after the company slashed second-quarter earnings guidance by more than half. The stock also fell by about half.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) bled to six-year lows on news that the Securities and Exchange Commission is informally investigating the pharmaceutical stalwart. Bristol-Myers may have manipulated inventory levels and stuffed inventory channels to increase revenue by $1 billion. Management has been candid about the firm's high inventory levels and channel stuffing is not illegal. It's common practice. Near $20, the stock yields 4.8% and trades at 22 times '02 estimates.

Biotechs Genentech (NYSE: DNA) and IDEC Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: IDPH) gained healthily on positive second quarters. Genentech grew sales 26% to $652 million. A $500 million jury verdict against Genentech pushed earnings into the red, but investors looked beyond that. IDEC said second-quarter earnings (out July 17) should leap 33% to $0.20 per share on strong sales of Rituxan, a cancer drug that it co-markets with Genentech.

You agreed to loan US Airways (NYSE: U) $900 million yesterday. Okay. You didn't, but the federal government did, using taxpayer money. The Washington Post reports that if US Airways offers collateral (including prized airport gates) and stock and reduces costs by $1.2 billion a year, a federal loan could save it from filing bankruptcy. It's interesting how the government aids inefficient airlines (US Airways was burning cash even before Sept. 11), while companies like Southwest (NYSE: LUV) demonstrate that airlines can be run profitably. We're not saying it's right or wrong. Just interesting.

And Finally...

Today on Fool.com: Rick Munarriz goes out on a limb and says the worst is behind us.... In the Drip Port, Jeff Fischer acknowledges blue chip stocks are still a pricey lot.... Fool's School explains why you should maximize your 401(k) by taking advantage of company matching.... In the Fool Community, the Hot Topic is lightning bugs. Discuss.

Contributors:
Bob Bobala, Robert Brokamp, Jeff Fischer, Jeff Hwang, Tom Jacobs, Bill Mann, Selena Maranjian, Rex Moore, Rick Munarriz, Jackie Ross, Reggie Santiago, Dayana Yochim

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