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1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Ambac?

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 160,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, bond insurer Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK  ) has received the dreaded one-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Ambac's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Ambac facts

Headquarters (Founded)

New York City (1971)

Market Cap

$507.5 million

Industry

Property and casualty insurance

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$3.5 billion

Management

CEO David Wallis (since October 2008)
CFO David Trick (since January 2010)

Return on Assets (Average, Past 3 Years)

(9.8%)

1-Month Return

126%

Competitors

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A  ) (NYSE: BRK-B  )
Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO  )
MBIA (NYSE: MBI  )

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 37% of the 1,143 members who have rated Ambac believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include wolfhounds and All-Star TSIF, who is ranked in the top 1% of our community.

Just last week, wolfhounds explained why Ambac's recent results feel like a one-time anomaly:

Take away the $470m tax refund, [and Ambac] had an operating loss of $385m. Its asset base continues to deteriorate while it is barely covering interest on debt with cash on hand. It is still most likely to fail.

In a pitch from the same day, TSIF also pointed out holes in the bull case. Here's an excerpt :

Most of the rationale seems to be around two areas (myths).

1. Ambac had a profit this quarter. That isn't quite correct. Ambac had a gain this past quarter on the back of ONE TIME events. ...

2. Ambac peaked at $96 only three years ago. ... Ambac had a net tangible assets of POSITVE $6.1 BILLION. Today its a negative $3 BILLION and dropping. ... NET LOSS of $9 Billion in tangible assets. Why would a company that had a $9 BILLION drop in tangible assets and now has a NEGATIVE $9.8 Dollars per share, be worth $96 per share when it is writing NO new business and can't value what it has?

What do you think about Ambac, or any other stock for that matter? If you want to retire rich, you need to protect your portfolio from any undue risk. Staying away from dangerous stocks is crucial to securing your financial future, and on Motley Fool CAPS, thousands of investors are working every day to flag them. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

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Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Berkshire Hathaway is a Motley Fool Inside Value and Stock Advisor pick. The Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On April 19, 2010, at 9:51 AM, truemoney wrote:

    DJN quotes CITI CFO today, “Citi not involved in the matter that the SEC announced FRIDAY” and “Citi is fully cooperating with ‘these’ (plural) investigations... Based on an a new article regarding Ambac’s back door restructuring by Wisconsin Regulators, it’s looking more likely that ABK will be around to collect from Citi and others on misrepresented mortgaged backed securities, the judge in the case is looking to make that they will be around. Link to article follows:

    http://www.jsonline.com/business/91291174.html

  • Report this Comment On April 19, 2010, at 9:53 AM, truemoney wrote:

    DJN quotes CITI CFO today, “Citi not involved in the matter that the SEC announced FRIDAY” and “Citi is fully cooperating with ‘these’ (plural) investigations... Based on an a new article regarding Ambac’s back door restructuring by Wisconsin Regulators, it’s looking more likely that ABK will be around to collect from Citi and others on misrepresented mortgaged backed securities, the judge in the case is looking to make that they will be around. Link to article follows:

    http://www.jsonline.com/business/91291174.html

  • Report this Comment On April 19, 2010, at 10:56 AM, Randy3515 wrote:

    [ABK] is a momentum play not a fundamental investment strategy, I bet the shorts are crapping their pants. In the short term fundamental trading means nothing. It's the home internet trader who knows very little about fundamentals who is currently directing the low volume market. This will continue until fund managers start buying in droves. Anyone who believes in trading the current market on fundamentals alone is a fool. Its technical trading that rules in today's fast market and it's much more easily understood for the millions of home internet traders. I believe [ABK] will make another run during the shorts scramble for safety once again. Most all shorts are getting creamed and will much less likely climb aboard short again in the future! The continuation of recent regulatory effort to split the bond insurer's toxic assets from the rest of its business will push the shorts all the way out. The press releases from these discussions will only continue to fuel the future upward momentum of ABK's price, and short covering will help fuel it in between press releases. I believe [ABK] has begun the rare process of quickly churning its average share buy in price. Traders will soon all be in near the same price, there will be no profit to take until it climbs again. This will create the hold effect and when all outstanding sharers have been traded at an average price say around 2.00, this will eliminate fear of loss of profits and the remaining stock holders will be in wait of the next trend upwards. Remember this stock traded for a long time under a 1.00 which means everyone who purchased it there probably already traded out, this is why it came down hard from 3.39. It's now time to climb aboard again by the end of this week [ABK] IS A MOMENTUM PLAY, don't miss the boat. Don't listen to JP Morgan's Analyst I'm guessing he's probably advised his clients to go short. That's just my opinion!!!

  • Report this Comment On April 19, 2010, at 10:59 AM, Randy3515 wrote:

    [ABK] is a momentum play not a fundamental investment strategy, I bet the shorts are crapping their pants. In the short term fundamental trading means nothing. It's the home internet trader who knows very little about fundamentals who is currently directing the low volume market. This will continue until fund managers start buying in droves. Anyone who believes in trading the current market on fundamentals alone is a fool. Its technical trading that rules in today's fast market and it's much more easily understood for the millions of home internet traders. I believe [ABK] will make another run during the shorts scramble for safety once again. Most all shorts are getting creamed and will much less likely climb aboard short again in the future! The continuation of recent regulatory effort to split the bond insurer's toxic assets from the rest of its business will push the shorts all the way out. The press releases from these discussions will only continue to fuel the future upward momentum of ABK's price, and short covering will help fuel it in between press releases. I believe [ABK] has begun the rare process of quickly churning its average share buy in price. Traders will soon all be in near the same price, there will be no profit to take until it climbs again. This will create the hold effect and when all outstanding sharers have been traded at an average price say around 2.00, this will eliminate fear of loss of profits and the remaining stock holders will be in wait of the next trend upwards. Remember this stock traded for a long time under a 1.00 which means everyone who purchased it there probably already traded out, this is why it came down hard from 3.39. It's now time to climb aboard again by the end of this week [ABK] IS A MOMENTUM PLAY, don't miss the boat. Don't listen to JP Morgan's Analyst I'm guessing he's probably advised his clients to go short. That's just my opinion!!!

  • Report this Comment On April 19, 2010, at 8:07 PM, SUPERMANSTOCKS wrote:

    I will bet anyone that ABK will be at or hit 2.40 within the next 3 weeks. I will bet them one share either way.

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