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1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Travelzoo?

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Based on the aggregated intelligence of 170,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, online travel deal company Travelzoo (Nasdaq: TZOO  ) has received the dreaded one-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Travelzoo's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Travelzoo facts

Headquarters (Founded) New York (1998)
Market Cap $1.15 billion
Industry Internet software and services
Trailing-12-Month Revenue $121.23 million
Management

CEO Christopher Loughlin (since 2010)

CFO Wayne Lee (since 2006)

Return on Equity (Average, Past 3 Years) 17.1%
Cash/Debt $51.8 million / $0
Competitors

Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE  )

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  )

priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN  )

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 43% of the 480 members who have rated Travelzoo believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include robertshrestha and Onigato.

Just last week, robertshrestha touched on Travelzoo's seemingly unsustainable price action: "Negative earnings, questionable competitive moat, red hot stock price, and high forward valuation. Too risky for my taste."

In fact, Travelzoo currently sports a lofty forward P/E of 30. That represents a clear premium to listed rivals Expedia (13.2), Google (13.3), and Priceline (19.4).

CAPS member Onigato elaborates on the bear case:
 

TravelZoo is riding on a contact high from speculation on what Groupon and Facebook *might* do if they *maybe* go public at an undisclosed time in an uncertain future.

The company isn't turning a profit, they aren't unique in the market, and frankly, they are way overpriced.

They might do okay, but I don't seem them to be set to dominate.

What do you think about Travelzoo, or any other stock for that matter? If you want to retire rich, you need to protect your portfolio from any undue risk. Staying away from dangerous stocks is crucial to securing your financial future, and on Motley Fool CAPS, thousands of investors are working every day to flag them. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!  

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Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Google and Priceline. The Motley Fool owns shares of Google. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On June 02, 2011, at 10:53 AM, JehovaJira wrote:

    I think P/E ratios and other similar kinds of metrics comparing price or enterprise value to operational metrics can sometimes be misleading. Hi P/E ratios could merely represent the attractiveness of the stock to potential investors relative to the size of the float (the amount of stock available for sale).

    The float size relative to the demand may be partly responsible for the TZOO P/E ratio. 66% of the total stock is held by management, and 44% of the remaining stock is held by mutual funds. In addition, the number of funds owning shares in the stock has grown consistently from Jun-09 through the most recently available quarterly statistics. While has not yet reached profitability, its earnings per share growth has remained above 100% for the past four quarters.

    I also want to point out that investors can grow rich by seeing opportunity for growth where other more conservative investors see the opportunity for loss of capital. Of course, it always help when you buy at the right value. For example, buying TZOO at 75.66 on May 12 was not a good idea in the short run, but those who bought TZOO at 63.20 on May 17 may be congratulating themselves on their good position. My personal view, unlike about 43% of Motely Fool Caps, is that both positions will be profitable shortly.

  • Report this Comment On June 02, 2011, at 12:01 PM, scott1020 wrote:

    The two examples used to support negative sentiment in TZOO are very poor. Travelzoo has been profitable the previous 4 quarters prior to Q1's earnings. And that loss was attributable to a settlement that has been an outstanding issue soon after the company's inception. On a more important note, cash flow was positive and was higher than the last 5 quarters, probably the highest ever. TZOO has limited financial liabilities and strong potential upside for revenue growth. The company definitely trades at a premium, but not comparative to p/e ratios. There are many companies trading much more egregiously. It is more expensive from a price/book value or market cap or enterprise value/sales perspective.

    This article is biased. TMF and caps investors in general do not offer much for a serious investor, just a gossip show.

  • Report this Comment On June 03, 2011, at 9:28 AM, johnvanjohn wrote:

    Tzoo has a great infrastructure not only in the USA but in Europe also. It is a well managed company that keeps its costs in line....Example. Groupon has over 7000 employees and spends 35% of its revenue on advertising.

    Tzoo has first rate deals..try and book one ! most get sold out in a day or so.

  • Report this Comment On June 04, 2011, at 9:16 PM, edenVchen wrote:

    this is ridiculous hahaha, comparing their 1 yr forward p/e to expe, goog, and pcln is like comparing msft with netsuite... look at operating margin expansion, rev growth and travelzoo's expansion in europe. These people saying that tzoo will not succeed or the same people that could not understand why pcln did so well.

    you must understand the company if you want to analyze, not just look @ multiples

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:00 PM
TZOO $23.47 Up +0.52 +2.27%
Travelzoo CAPS Rating: **
PCLN $652.88 Down -16.09 -2.41%
Priceline.com CAPS Rating: **
GOOG $591.53 Down -12.13 -2.01%
Google CAPS Rating: ****
EXPE $44.89 Down -0.27 -0.60%
Expedia, Inc. CAPS Rating: **

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