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2-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: GameStop?

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, video game retailer GameStop (NYSE: GME  ) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at GameStop's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

GameStop facts

Headquarters (founded) Grapevine, Texas (1994)
Market Cap $3.21 billion
Industry Electronics stores
Trailing-12-Month Revenue $9.66 billion
Management CEO J. Paul Raines (since 2010)
CFO Robert Lloyd (since 2010)
Return on Equity (average, past 3 years) 15%
Cash/Debt $442.6 million / $124.7 million
Competitors Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN  )
Target (NYSE: TGT  )
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  )

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 8% of the 3,182 members who have rated GameStop believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include All-Star starz188, who is ranked in the top 10% of our community, and MajorBob04.

About a month ago, starz188 touched on the tailwinds working against GameStop: "Digital downloads and/or purchases from online vendors like Amazon make this the next version of [Borders Group]."

Over the next five years, in fact, GameStop is expected to grow its bottom line at a rate of just 8% annually. That's slower than main online threat Amazon (22%), as well as big-box retailers Target (11%) and Wal-Mart (10%).

CAPS member MajorBob04 elaborates on the bear case:

GameStop is doing all the right things to keep the stock price up, but the longer term projections show that sales are slowing, earnings are slowing, and ultimately the business model is deteriorating. Until they can get into a business with a growth, or at least profitable, forecast, the long-term projection is that ultimately the stock will suffer.

What do you think about GameStop, or any other stock for that matter? If you want to retire rich, you need to protect your portfolio from any undue risk. Staying away from dangerous stocks is crucial to securing your financial future, and on Motley Fool CAPS, thousands of investors are working every day to flag them. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

Interested in another easy way to track GameStop? Add it to your watchlist.

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. The Fool owns shares of GameStop and Wal-Mart. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended writing covered calls in GameStop, buying shares of Amazon and Wal-Mart, and creating a diagonal call position in Wal-Mart. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On December 05, 2011, at 5:54 PM, Varchild2008 wrote:

    Gamestop has competition?

    Who knew?

    Wow...I learned so much from this article it is absolutely crazy!!!!!!!!! I am going crazy!!!!!!

    So many details to keep track of!!!!

    "GameStop is doing all the right things to keep the stock price up, but the longer term projections show that sales are slowing..."

    So we are not going to discuss the economy from 2007 to now.

    So we are not going to point out the struggles of U.K. #1 Video Game Retailer Game Group and compare their Revenue declines against Gamestop's Revenue Increase.

    Game Group's revenue pulled back sharply in Q3 while Gamestop managed a 2.5% increase in revenue.

    We are going to continue to disregard the impact under any kind of economy of having a Spring/Summer Video Game Release Schedule that is 30% less SKUs than a year ago?

    Not going to discuss how that impacts Earnings?

    No... Just pump out a blanket statement that Gamestop's weak Q3 is because of.....well.....you never bother to explain it.

    I mean digital dnloading? Gamestop is building business in this area now....

    Competition for Pre-Owned?

    Even if that does have some kind of long term impact, what about the long term impact of all the new businesses that Gamestop is opening up for itself?

    That would include Digital Dnloading via IMPULSE, KONGREGATE, and iDevices Trade-In program, and of course the Gaming Tablets.

    Gamestop has all of these NEW BUSINESSES

    And we want to focus on competition against its old business of Pre-Owned which right now is absolutely paultry?

    Gamestop does well over 10 million transactions in 1 quarter....1st quarter of 2011.....versus Best Buy targeting just over 1 million transactions for 1 full year?

    The competition as of now is so small that placing a judgement on it as "Going to Destroy Gamestop Long Term" is heavily premature.

    And it discounts...ignores.....everything Gamestop is basically doing to cut into their competitors businesses in areas Gamestop never ventured before.

    Ignoring Much of Gamestop's entire business model and still putting out RED THUMBS and OPINIONS isn't going to make an ALL STAR investor out of anyone.

  • Report this Comment On December 05, 2011, at 6:01 PM, Varchild2008 wrote:

    P.S. AMAZON's bottom line is a NEGATIVE NUMBER for Q4 2011 if they do indeed do as projected....a negative $250,000 - $200,000 million.

    They are a LOSS MAKING BUSINESS possibly if you look at their Earnings projection on their most recent Earnings Report.

    And yet you sit there with a straight face and say Amazon's growing bottom line figures at a 22% clip?

    That have missed bottom line figures at least TWICE this year... TWICE.....

    MISSED EM....

    And with a straight face you want to pump out a 22% bottom line growth statistic on Amazon.

    Again premature....

    All I hear on CNBC is investors of Amazon nervous about when the "Inflection Point" occurs where losses selling KINDLE FIREs finally translates into gains selling merchandise off of those KINDLE FIREs.

    That's a really interesting fact that long investors are basically having to ride a Downward Rollercoaster on (AMZN) for the hopeful prospects of superb earnings eventually.

    And do we learn of this in the above article??

    No...

    The only thing we get is Gamestop = 8% eps growth while Amazon = 22% eps growth.

    But an 8% eps growth means $2.88 eps 2011.

    Gamestop could possibly surpass that as high as $2.92 eps based on Company's own eps range.... That being the top of the range. That being a bit greater than 8%. That being a range provided Nov. 17/18th before Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales occured.

    Reality is we may...may...possibly...see eps surpass $2.92 depending on how December performs.

    So....again....blanket statements....no details....no facts....no substance from MOTLEY FOOL yet again.

  • Report this Comment On December 05, 2011, at 6:12 PM, Varchild2008 wrote:

    *oops* I meant $250 to $200 million. My bad.

    Regardless I am going straight from memory on all this so I encourage everyone to look at Amazon's earnings report most recent one....

    look at Amazon's earnings report and look at their projection for earnings....income....for Q4 2011.

    Do you see a 22% growth story?

    I do not.

    Selling digital books is somehow so much better for Amazon than selling physical?

    Maybe in terms of it being cheaper...no shipping fees and such.....

    But a 22% earnings growth superior to selling physical books?

    But you still have the expense and pressure to put out new software/hardware in order to stay competitive against other electronic book sellers like GOOGLE and Barnes and Noble.

    GOOGLE's Android has been able to create dozens of competitor tablets and new ones coming (ASUS Transformer Prime)....

    I mean Amazon has a lot of headwinds to make this 22% growth story on EPS expectations (which they will already miss this year).

  • Report this Comment On December 05, 2011, at 6:31 PM, mm5525 wrote:

    Thou shalt hold onto your PM, Varchild, sir. All else will be fine in the universe the next decade or two. ;)

  • Report this Comment On December 05, 2011, at 6:51 PM, varchildisashill wrote:

    VARCHILD YOU ARE A SHAMELESS SHILL.

    EVERYONE KNOWS YOU ARE HEAVILY INVESTED IN THIS BLOATED CORPSE OF A COMPANY.

    Why not be honest enough to PREFACE your inane talking points with the disclaimer that you basically work for gamestop???

  • Report this Comment On December 06, 2011, at 8:21 AM, Varchild2008 wrote:

    Varchild is an idiot is perhaps the best investment strategy evah!!!!

    Lets ignore the fact that some titles such as Duke Nukem Forever released over the summer with sales and critic review scores well below expectations.

    Lets ignore all the facts..... Analyze nothing.

    AND just lambast Varchild2008 with smears!!!

    That sounds like Fun. Varchild must be a GameStop employee or something.

    Sorry to disappoint all the Occupied GameStoppers on Motley Fool..but Nope Not an employee. Just an individual investor who strongly believes investors should get far better info. On stocks than just a bunch of people declaring that a company with almost no debt is somehow going bankrupt cause Best Buy is selling prwowned software. Fools of Motley Fool deserve better analysis than articles that fail to address the fact that Gamestop is.diversifying their business and this diversification gets ignored in favor of whining about digital dnliading and competition. What company of retail doesn't face.competition? It's unavoidable. So by itself is not a helpful argument.

  • Report this Comment On December 06, 2011, at 8:50 AM, Varchild2008 wrote:

    If video game distribution channels are changing and oh no there is competition.....is the best that pessimistic analysts can muster then that to me is a very weak not well thought out analysis.

    GameStop has made itself multichannel this year.

    We are supposed to hand this stock a 2 star rating?

    What for?

    It is ignoring GameStop's ability to compete well with other retailers for more than 15 years and their current willingness to adapt to whatever channel video gamers buy their merchandise.

    You can suggest GameStop will fail to compete on digital dnloading. Fine. But the digital aspect of GameStop is not slowing. It has grown by over 50%.

    The evidence that GameStop can't compete in the digital retail space is premature at best and completely without merit at worst.

    In terms of physical retail.... The economy matters and the lack of Spring Summer AAA releases should factor into any discussion of Q2 and Q3 retail figures.

    Here on Motley Fool we are spoon fed hardly any analysis or discussion on any of this.

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5/25/2012 4:01 PM
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