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Has Microsoft Become the Perfect Stock?

Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?

One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) fits the bill.

The quest for perfection
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:

  • Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
  • Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
  • Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
  • Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
  • Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Microsoft.

Factor

What We Want to See

Actual

Pass or Fail?

Growth 5-Year Annual Revenue Growth > 15% 9.4% Fail
  1-Year Revenue Growth > 12% 8.0% Fail
Margins Gross Margin > 35% 76.4% Pass
  Net Margin > 15% 32.6% Pass
Balance Sheet Debt to Equity < 50% 20.0% Pass
  Current Ratio > 1.3 2.86 Pass
Opportunities Return on Equity > 15% 41.7% Pass
Valuation Normalized P/E < 20 16.06 Pass
Dividends Current Yield > 2% 2.5% Pass
  5-Year Dividend Growth > 10% 13.6% Pass
       
  Total Score   8 out of 10

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes.

Since we looked at Microsoft last year, the software giant has kept its eight-point score. Lost in the shadow of its big competitor, Microsoft's 25% return on its shares over the past year is nothing to sneeze at.

Microsoft's stock has spent much of the past decade stagnating. Profits have rolled in thanks to its dominance in the PC operating system and office software market, but the company has missed out on becoming the industry leader in newer areas of tech expansion, most notably mobile devices.

But Microsoft is setting out to change that. The company's partnership with Nokia (NYSE: NOK  ) is part of its plan to beat out Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) in the huge Chinese market, as it introduced Windows Phone 7.5 in Beijing earlier this month. Apple's failure to make its phones compatible with the largest telecom player in China could give it an insurmountable competitive disadvantage, but Android-powered devices will be harder for Microsoft to pass up even with a low-cost strategy.

The key to Microsoft's future right now is its planned release of Windows 8 by this fall. With the ability to run devices that have either Intel (Nasdaq: INTC  ) or ARM Holdings chips, Microsoft could see strong results in the holiday season -- assuming the release goes without any glitches. And with Intel ramping up its own mobile presence, hooking up with its PC partner could be a natural move.

Microsoft may never be able to regain the quick-growth pace that would give it its final points on our 10-point scale. But with a solid dividend, reasonable valuation, and some catalysts that could create new growth opportunities, Microsoft gives investors plenty of reasons to take a closer look.

Keep searching
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.

Microsoft is one way to bet on the tech revolution, but there is a better Foolish pick, too. The Motley Fool has released a free report on mobile named "The Next Trillion-Dollar Revolution" that details a hidden component play inside mobile phones that's also absolutely dominating the exploding tech market in China. Inside the report, we not only describe why the mobile revolution will dwarf any other technology revolution seen before it, but we also name the company at the forefront of the trend. Hundreds of thousands have requested access to previous reports, but you can be among the first to access this report by clicking here -- it's free.

Click here to add Microsoft to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Fool contributor Dan Caplinger doesn't own shares of the companies mentioned in this article. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple, Intel, Microsoft, and Google. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Microsoft, Nokia, Google, Apple, and Intel, as well as creating bull call spread positions in Apple and Microsoft. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (0)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 27, 2012, at 3:17 PM, ReTeacher01 wrote:

    INTERESTING WHAT IS NOT SAID.

    1) The DOJ oversite of Microsoft during the stagnet years. And what would the company have done without the questionable monopoly ruling.

    2) The strategy where Microsoft aquires Clearwire wireless spectrum and Nokia has first right to offer LTE phones nationwide with unlimited data service.

  • Report this Comment On March 27, 2012, at 6:21 PM, baldheadeddork wrote:

    One of the drags on Microsoft revenue over the last several years is the seemingly endless lifespan of the XP desktop system. Depending on who is counting, between a third and 45% of all the desktop and laptop computers in the world today are still running XP. Not bad for an operating system that hasn't been sold to home users since 2007, and hasn't been available to business customers since 2010.

    But XP is finally, definitely on its way out. Microsoft is ending extended support on April 8, 2014. That means after that date Microsoft will no longer make security updates for XP.

    And that means nearly all XP computers will be replaced over the next two years. That's about eight hundred million systems, on top of growth as the economy comes out of the recession and replacement of Vista systems.

    This isn't getting a lot of attention yet, but it will. We support several hundred workstations and laptops at my IT services company and about 90% are using XP. We're beginning to have conversations with out clients so they can budget for this over the next two years and it's going to be a very big deal. Clients that bought a couple of systems a year as seven year-old Dell Dimensions finally died are going to be buying 10-30 systems in the next two years. Just on the business side it's going to be the biggest wave of spending on IT I've seen since Y2K.

    And remember, Microsoft will likely get paid twice on all of these new systems for business clients - once for Windows, and once for Office.

    I don't know how much of this analysts are including in their projections, but Microsoft revenues will significantly outperform the norm of the last few years.

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Dan Caplinger
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Dan Caplinger has been a contract writer for the Motley Fool since 2006. As the Fool's Director of Investment Planning, Dan oversees much of the personal-finance and investment-planning content published daily on Fool.com. With a background as an estate-planning attorney and independent financial consultant, Dan's articles are based on more than 20 years of experience from all angles of the financial world.

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12/22/2014 4:00 PM
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