Table One
Foolish Four Inflation-Adjusted Portfolio Success Rates: 1961 to 1998
(Percentage of payout periods supported by portfolio)
Withdrawal Rate as % of Initial Portfolio Value
Length of Payout Period3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%
100% Foolish Four
15 Years1001001001001009683796354
20 Years100100100100958974584242
25 Years100100100100937950292929
30 Years100100100100896722000
35 Years1001001001001007525000
75% Foolish Four/25% Bonds
15 Years1001001001001009279585438
20 Years100100100100896853423716
25 Years10010010010086502929210
30 Years10010010010067110000
35 Years1001001001007500000
50% Foolish Four/50% Bonds
15 Years100100100100927554332921
20 Years100100100896347261100
25 Years1001001007936297000
30 Years10010010056000000
35 Years10010010025000000
25% Foolish Four/75% Bonds
15 Years100100100100713829212117
20 Years100100895326110000
25 Years1001006436000000
30 Years100100110000000
35 Years10010000000000
100% Bonds
15 Years1001001005425212117174
20 Years10079375000000
25 Years1004300000000
30 Years78000000000
35 Years0000000000
Note: Numbers rounded to nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1961 to 1998, inclusively, is 24; 20-year periods, 19; 25-year periods, 14; 30-year periods, 9; 35-year periods, 4. Stocks are represented by the Foolish Four, and bonds by long-term, high-quality corporate bonds. Data source: Author's calculations based on data from The Motley Fool and Ibbotson Associates.