The Motley Fool: Foolish Four Inflation-Adjusted Portfolio Success Rates

Table One

Foolish Four Inflation-Adjusted Portfolio Success Rates: 1961 to 1998

(Percentage of payout periods supported by portfolio)

	Withdrawal Rate as % of Initial Portfolio Value
Length of Payout Period	3%	4%	5%	6%	7%	8%	9%	10%	11%	12%
100% Foolish Four
15 Years	100	100	100	100	100	96	83	79	63	54
20 Years	100	100	100	100	95	89	74	58	42	42
25 Years	100	100	100	100	93	79	50	29	29	29
30 Years	100	100	100	100	89	67	22	0	0	0
35 Years	100	100	100	100	100	75	25	0	0	0
75% Foolish Four/25% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	100	100	92	79	58	54	38
20 Years	100	100	100	100	89	68	53	42	37	16
25 Years	100	100	100	100	86	50	29	29	21	0
30 Years	100	100	100	100	67	11	0	0	0	0
35 Years	100	100	100	100	75	0	0	0	0	0
50% Foolish Four/50% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	100	92	75	54	33	29	21
20 Years	100	100	100	89	63	47	26	11	0	0
25 Years	100	100	100	79	36	29	7	0	0	0
30 Years	100	100	100	56	0	0	0	0	0	0
35 Years	100	100	100	25	0	0	0	0	0	0
25% Foolish Four/75% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	100	71	38	29	21	21	17
20 Years	100	100	89	53	26	11	0	0	0	0
25 Years	100	100	64	36	0	0	0	0	0	0
30 Years	100	100	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35 Years	100	100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
100% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	54	25	21	21	17	17	4
20 Years	100	79	37	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
25 Years	100	43	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30 Years	78	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35 Years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Note: Numbers rounded to nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1961 to 1998, inclusively, is 24; 20-year periods, 19; 25-year periods, 14; 30-year periods, 9; 35-year periods, 4. Stocks are represented by the Foolish Four, and bonds by long-term, high-quality corporate bonds. Data source: Author's calculations based on data from The Motley Fool and Ibbotson Associates.

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