Table Two
S&P 500 Index Inflation-Adjusted Portfolio Success Rates: 1961 to 1998
(Percentage of payout periods supported by portfolio)
Withdrawal Rate as % of Initial Portfolio Value
Length of Payout Period3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%
100% S&P 500
15 Years10010010075585042292113
20 Years1001007442322116500
25 Years100100290000000
30 Years10067220000000
35 Years100100500000000
75% S&P 500/25% Bonds
15 Years10010010079544233252113
20 Years100100743221165000
25 Years10093210000000
30 Years10056110000000
35 Years10010000000000
50% S&P 500/50% Bonds
15 Years10010010071503325211713
20 Years10010063262150000
25 Years1008670000000
30 Years1003300000000
35 Years1002500000000
25% S&P 500/75% Bonds
15 Years1001001007142252117178
20 Years1001004721500000
25 Years1005700000000
30 Years100000000000
35 Years100000000000
100% Bonds
15 Years1001001005425212117174
20 Years10079375000000
25 Years1004300000000
30 Years78000000000
35 Years0000000000
Note: Numbers rounded to nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1961 to 1998, inclusively, is 24; 20-year periods, 19; 25-year periods, 14; 30-year periods, 9; 35-year periods, 4. Stocks are represented by the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, and bonds by long-term, high-quality corporate bonds. Data source: Author's calculationsbased on data from Ibbotson Associates.