This Just In: Upgrades and Downgradeshttp://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2009/03/17/this-just-in-upgrades-and-downgrades.aspx Rich Smith
March 17, 2009
At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." So you might think we'd be the last people to give virtual ink to such "news." And we would be -- if that were all we were doing.
But in "This Just In," we don't simply tell you what the analysts said. We'll also show you whether they know what they're talking about. To help, we've enlisted Motley Fool CAPS, our tool for rating stocks and analysts alike. With CAPS, we'll be tracking the long-term performance of Wall Street's best and brightest -- and its worst and sorriest, too.
And speaking of the best ...
But price isn't the only thing behind Citi's buy rec. The analyst practically gushes praise for the oil company, extolling its "low risk integrated business model, low cost of capital, superior industry returns and ... strongest balance sheet not only in the energy space but also in the S&P 500 (AAA rated for 90 years)." And while Citi acknowledges the risks inherent in staking a claim in an industry rife with "extreme volatility ... over the last 18 months," on balance, it thinks the price is right, right here, right now.
But is Citi right?
Let's go to the tape
On balance, superior winners like ...
... have Citi ahead of the game right now, with its average pick outperforming the rest of the market by about one percentage point. But the fact remains that this banker is wrong almost precisely as often as it's right -- in oil as in other industries: