2 Scariest Dividend Stocks in Health Carehttp://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/15/2-scariest-dividend-stocks-in-health-care.aspx Keith Speights
May 15, 2013
Combining nice dividends with a growing industry that comprises roughly one-fifth of the nation's GDP should make for an attractive stock -- in theory. Unfortunately, the theoretical doesn't always translate well in the real world.
While there are quite a few solid dividend stocks in the health care sector, not all of them are as good as they might seem. In fact, some of them might be downright scary. Here are two health-care stocks that could have investors shaking in their boots over the next few years.
Mayan calendar deja vu
PDL BioPharma receives essentially all of its revenue from licensing drugs that have patents that expire at the end of 2014. The company expects to continue receiving some revenue through 2016. Unless new revenue sources are found, however, that will be the end of the road. Its stated plan is to liquidate or sell the business if significant new revenue streams don't materialize.
At this point, it doesn't look likely that sufficient revenue generation will happen. PDL has made a few deals recently, but none seem to hold promise for high-dollar returns.
Hopes for one potential pathway to new profits were lowered last year. PDL licensed an antibody to Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) for a potential treatment for Alzheimer's disease. However, Lilly's solanezumab failed to meet primary endpoints of two late-stage studies in 2012.
Lilly has embarked on another phase 3 study of the drug targeting patients with mild forms of Alzheimer's. If that study achieves success and the drug is ultimately commercialized, PDL will receive royalties for over 12 years afterward. However, even if that scenario unfolds perfectly, the royalty payments wouldn't be enough to keep PDL anywhere close to current revenue levels.
Big shoes to fill
The problem for AbbVie is that it currently relies on Humira for more than half of its total revenue. AbbVie counts seven other significant drugs in its lineup, but only one of them saw sales growth last quarter -- Androgel, with a whopping 3.4% year-over-year increase.
Humira's $9.3 billion in sales makes for some big shoes to fill. Could drugs in AbbVie's late-stage pipeline fill those shoes?
Let's assume that multiple sclerosis drug daclizumab, developed with Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB), gains approval. Analysts estimate peak annual sales at $500 million on the high end. AbbVie splits profits equally with Biogen, so the drug would probably only gain $250 million per year at most.
Multiple myeloma drug elotuzumab represents peak annual sales potential of around $300 million. Elagolix could hit yearly sales of $800 million for treating endometriosis. The drug also is in a phase 2 study for uterine fibroids. Success with that indication could eventually bump total peak sales for elagolix to $1.5 billion per year. Parkinson's disease gel Levodopa/Carbidopa could generate as much as $1 billion annually.
That leaves one final late-stage drug to consider: AbbVie's hepatitis C combo. This drug combo boasts the greatest potential of all, with some analysts estimating $3 billion in annual sales. However, the company has plenty of competition in the hep-C market. The fast-paced de