Football Is Closer to Becoming Moneyball Than You May Thinkhttp://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/03/05/nfl-big-data.aspx Jake Mann
March 5, 2014
Much like Moneyball in the MLB, advanced statistics are revolutionizing the NFL. One company is leading the charge, and after speaking with its executives, I'm convinced football will look very different in a few years.
The chess game
I recently picked the brain of its senior VP of sports solutions, Brian Kopp, who compared football to a chess match. Despite the game's strategic nature, he said, "there's very limited information" -- something STATS is working to change.
Seven years after the Oakland A's use of unconventional wisdom swept baseball by storm, the 2009 New Orleans Saints began to mesh analytics with game planning and personnel decisions.
John Pollard, another STATS executive, told me that at that time, there still "wasn't a comfort level" associated with any type of math in the NFL, but that's changed in recent seasons. The company is now partnered with a dozen NFL teams, and more are on the horizon.
The advanced stats
The metric gives quantifiable insight into which defender a QB should target, rather than simply relying on a player's reputation. Situational stats, by comparison, can be tweaked for field position, time of game, score and more. According to Pollard, they're not just for the film room or scouts -- analytics are actually being used during games.
When asked if there's a "go-to" stat NFL executives and coaches want access to, he shared an interesting one: tackle quality. By measuring a defender's positioning, tackling ability, yards allowed after physical contact and proximity to the line of scrimmage, teams can discover weak points on defense. Before there were simply tackles, which is rather one-dimensional.
Although STATS won't disclose how much each NFL team pays for its services, it did confirm there are different subscription options in play, and some can receive discounts for longer, multi-year deals.
Industry sources I've talked to estimate that fantasy lounges, which are used by multiple clubs to boost fans' in-stadium experience, cost between $10 million and $20 million on average. If that's the price tag to develop fantasy stats, it's reasonable to expect teams are willing to pay at least that much to improve their game planning and personnel decisions. And considering that's nearly equal to the typical yearly cost of maintaining an NFL stadium, it's not chump change. But is it worth it?
Recent research suggests an NFL victory costs about $6 million in