Accuracy Will Make You Moneyhttp://www.fool.com/investing/options/2011/03/10/accuracy-will-make-you-money.aspx Jim Gillies
March 10, 2011
A beautiful thing about options investing -- and as co-advisor of Motley Fool Options, I'll admit to some up-front bias here -- is the sheer breadth of opportunity to make money. Expect a stock to rocket? There's a strategy for that! Expect a stock to plunge? There's a strategy for that! Expect a stock to be flat and boring for the foreseeable future? There's a strategy for that!
My co-advisor Jeff Fischer and I search for businesses whose industry, prospects, and financials we understand. Then we formulate an up, down, or stagnate thesis, and overlay an option strategy that we hope will yield a profit.
We hold accuracy as one of our core tenets; the higher our accuracy, the more satisfied we believe you'll be with your overall portfolio returns.
Of the 28 trade sequences that have reached their natural end since we launched the service, a full 27 have resulted in positive dollar profits – an accuracy rate exceeding 96%! (Including positions that haven't reached their conclusions yet, our accuracy is 81%.) Here are a few of our favorite options strategies that you can put to use in your portfolio.
Spreading the secret sauce
Consider eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY ) . We realized that the market didn't appreciate its rapidly growing online payment engine PayPal, or its soon-to-be-monetized online phone offering Skype. An upward stock price move of less than 1% translated to a 91% return on investment in the spread. Today, north of $30 per share, and with its majority interest in Skype sold off, we think eBay's current price reflects all of the company's prospects.
If you were looking to candidates to implement such a strategy today, you might look into automotive-safety-systems all-star Autoliv (NYSE: ALV ) . The company emerged from the credit wreck in excellent shape, making structural changes to improve profitability, and generating enough cash to turn a wobbly balance sheet into a fortress.
I think the stock's a bit ahead of itself, but I also believe that Autoliv's valuation would increase with each passing quarter. A bullish spread -- buying the September 2011 $65 calls while simultaneously selling the September $70 calls -- would cost you about $3.50. If the stock stays above $70 through expiration, your profit would be $1.50, or 43% in six months.
You can also set up bullish spreads using put options – for example, you might look to Best Buy (NYSE: BBY ) , a company beaten down in the wake of a disappointing holiday quarter and the reshifting of previous growth initiatives such as China expansion. Even with such headwinds, the stock sells for less than 10 times earnings, and should remain a cash engine. Think Best Buy can right the ship and stay above $30 through next January? You can sell the January 2012 $30 put, and buy the January 2013 $25 put. You'll net approximately $1.75 per share -- set that aside -- and at the conclusion of the trade, the worst you'll do is owe an additional $3.25 per share if the stock falls below $25.
Diagonalizing to profitability
Operating-system and office-software behemoth Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT )