by Jim Stevens (JimStevens@aol.com)
Burlington, VT (March 11, 1999) -- Jeez, for a model that has such an impressive backtest, the Unemotional Growth really has been stinking up the place lately. Tonight's column is an update of the Monthly traded UG model. For anyone not familiar with this screen, it picks it's stocks from among the hottest earnings growth performers of the stocks ranked #1 for Timeliness by Value Line.
To run the screen, start with the Value Line #1 list of 100 stocks. The original backtest threw out any foreign domiciled stocks. With this list in hand, rank each one by Investor's Business Daily "EPS" score. The top 5 or 10 are the "Unemotional Growth" stocks. Break ties with the IBD "Relative Strength" score.
Here are the February performances of the UG stocks. The monthly model is tracked hypothetically here, based on closing prices on the first Friday of each month, as if an equal dollar amount was spread over the 5 or 10 companies every time.
Dell Computer (Nasdaq: DELL) -14.31%
Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) -3.16%
Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL) 10.21%
Network Assoc. (Nasdaq: NETA) 5.92%
MiniMed Inc. (Nasdaq: MNMD) -15.92%
Staples Inc. (Nasdaq: SPLS) 3.87%
Concord EFS (Nasdaq: CEFT) -8.07%
Tellabs Inc. (Nasdaq: TLAB) 3.12%
Compuware Corp. (Nasdaq: CPWR) -15.00%
Oracle Corp. (Nasdaq: ORCL) -0.06%
UG 5 -3.45%
UG 10 -3.34%
That compares to a 2.91% gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index over the same period. On the year, the UG5 is now at -5.64% while the UG10 has sunk even more, at -9.58% since the January UG update. The benchmark S&P 500 was at 1229.23 as of the first Workshop monthly model update of 1999. On March 5, 1999 it closed at 1275.47, for a 3.76% gain over the period.
Checking in on the long-term history for the UG model, through March 5 the compound average growth rate (CAGR) for the UG5 now stands at 36.15%, and the UG10 fades to a CAGR of 26.50% for the 12-plus years beginning in January 1987. Check the UG History page for the complete record.
With the new month already upon us, here's the list of March Unemotional Growth stocks:
Dell Computer (Nasdaq: DELL)
Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT)
Tellabs Inc. (Nasdaq: TLAB)
Network Assoc. (Nasdaq: NETA)
Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL)
Oracle Corp. (Nasdaq: ORCL)
Dycom Inds. (NYSE: DY)
Waters Corp. (NYSE: WAT)
MiniMed Inc. (Nasdaq: MNMD)
CDW Computer Centers (Nasdaq: CDWC)